🇺🇸

Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC - Sporting KC

07/26/2026, 02:30 AM

4 : 0
预期进球
Los Angeles FC
1.7
Total xG
2.5
Sporting KC
0.8
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

5%
xG 分解
LAFSK

Los Angeles FC

防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.9球)
-0.70
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.73倍)
-0.44
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.16
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第15位, 相差12位)
+0.10
Timothy Tillman未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻)
13%进球产出缺失 (仅95%可用)
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2球)

Sporting KC

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.49倍)
-0.82
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.35
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2球)
+0.26
状态上升 (2 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
+0.26
排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第3位, 相差12位)
-0.11
客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体1.1球)
全员可用

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.3球)
+0.78
+0.78
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

58%

平局

27%

客胜

16%

进球数

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

双重机会

主胜或平局

84%

客胜或平局

42%

非平局

73%

双方进球

47%

53%

关键因素
  • Matchup Advantage: LAFC's strong home offense (1.8 goals) meets Sporting KC's extremely weak away defense (4.17 goals conceded)
  • H2H Dominance: Los Angeles FC dominates the historical matchup with 3 wins in the last 4 games and an 8-1 goal difference
  • Model Prediction: Mathematical analysis calculates a 58% home win probability and 1.71 expected goals for the hosts
风险因素
  • Fatigue factor: Both teams have only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
  • Dangerous trend: Sporting KC is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals) than their season average (1.1 goals), showing offensive strength with an average of 6.6 shots on target recently
  • Squad absence: Los Angeles FC is missing important midfielder Timothy Tillman (1 goal, 2 assists)
概述

Los Angeles FC host Sporting KC at BMO Stadium

MLS match on July 26, 2026, 2:30 AM

Third-placed team faces fifteenth-placed team

Clear favorite role for the home side

近期状态

Los Angeles FC with three consecutive wins

Overall form: LLWWW

Recently a 3-1 home win against Real Salt Lake

Sporting KC also showing a positive trend

Overall form: WWLLW

Recently a 2-1 win against Minnesota United

统计数据

Los Angeles FC scoring avg of 1.76 goals per game

Defensively stable with avg 1.06 goals conceded

Sporting KC scoring avg of 1.13 goals per game

Away side's defense highly vulnerable with avg 2.5 goals conceded

历史交锋

4 head-to-head matches in recent years

3 wins for Los Angeles FC and 1 draw

Goal difference of 8-1 in favor of the Californians

Last meeting ended 3-1 for Los Angeles FC

关键球员

Denis Bouanga: 8 goals, 2 assists, rising form

Heung-min Son: 2 goals, 8 assists, stable performance

Mark Delgado: 2 goals, 2 assists, stable midfield presence

Dejan Joveljić: 8 goals, 1 assist, rising form

Manu García: 2 goals, 4 assists, strong form trend

Calvin Harris: 2 goals, 3 assists, rising form curve

门将

Hugo Lloris with 10 clean sheets this season

Stefan Cleveland has 0 clean sheets

影响因素

Los Angeles FC is very strong at home with 18 goals scored

Sporting KC has already conceded 25 goals away from home

The match will be played on natural grass at BMO Stadium

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。