🇺🇸

Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC - San Diego

08/16/2026, 02:30 AM

0 : 1
预期进球
Los Angeles FC
1.4
Total xG
2.5
San Diego
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

10%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%
xG 分解
LAFSD

Los Angeles FC

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.72倍)
-0.80
防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.9球)
-0.75
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.4球)
+0.10
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第13位, 相差11位)
+0.07
Mark Delgado替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
16%进球产出缺失 (仅91%可用)

San Diego

防守实力 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
+0.27
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.20
排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第2位, 相差11位)
-0.13
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.11
状态下滑 (1.4 vs 1.8 赛季平均)
-0.11
客场表现不佳 (场均1.3球 vs 总体1.8球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.71
+0.71
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

45%

平局

30%

客胜

26%

进球数

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

双重机会

主胜或平局

74%

客胜或平局

55%

非平局

70%

双方进球

51%

49%

关键因素
  • Form trend clearly favors the hosts: Los Angeles FC has recently scored more frequently (2.4) than their season average (2.1), while San Diego's goal production has stalled (1.4 compared to 1.8)
  • Defensive contrast: San Diego concedes an extremely high average of 3.5 goals in away games, playing into the hands of the hosts' strong home offense
  • Tactical setup: San Diego averaged a highly possession-dominant style (61% possession) in recent matches, which should open up space for the counter-attacking LAFC (who averaged 40% possession lately)
风险因素
  • Los Angeles FC recently averaged only 3.4 shots on target per game, which could pose a risk if their efficiency drops
  • Historical handicap: Los Angeles FC has never won any of their 3 direct encounters against San Diego (2 losses, 1 draw)
概述

Los Angeles FC (2nd place, 34 points) hosts San Diego (13th place, 21 points) at BMO Stadium

Major League Soccer match on August 16, 2026, 4:30 AM

The hosts enter this match as favorites

近期状态

Los Angeles FC is in strong form with 4 wins and 1 draw (WWWWD)

San Diego is struggling with only 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses (DLLWD)

The hosts' positive trend contrasts with the visitors' negative trend

统计数据

Los Angeles FC scores an average of 1.83 goals at home and concedes only 0.75

San Diego averages 2.0 goals scored away but concedes a massive 3.5 goals per away game

The hosts boast a stable defense with 11 clean sheets this season

历史交锋

In 3 head-to-head matches, Los Angeles FC has never won

San Diego won 2 games, with 1 draw between them

The last meeting ended in a 2:2 draw on May 3, 2026

关键球员

Denis Bouanga (10 goals, 4 assists) and Heung-min Son (4 goals, 8 assists) lead the LAFC attack

Mathieu Choinière supports the midfield with 2 goals and 3 assists

Not nominated for the hosts: Mark Delgado (2 goals, 2 assists)

For San Diego, Marcus Ingvartsen with 11 goals and Anders Dreyer with 7 goals and 7 assists are the key threats

Onni Valakari contributed 3 goals and 3 assists so far

门将

Hugo Lloris guards the hosts' goal and has kept 11 clean sheets this season

Visitor goalkeeper CJ dos Santos has recorded 5 clean sheets

Both goalkeepers aim to build on their records at BMO Stadium

影响因素

The grass pitch at BMO Stadium provides perfect playing conditions

Stadium statistics show an average of 2.8 goals per match

Los Angeles FC benefits from a strong home advantage, conceding only 0.75 goals per home game

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。