🇺🇸

Major League Soccer

Toronto - New England

08/15/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Toronto
1.3
Total xG
2.7
New England
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
xG 分解
TORNE

Toronto

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.7倍)
-0.64
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.27
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.21
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
-0.15
防守实力 (场均失2球 vs 联赛平均1.9球)
+0.13
排名劣势 (第12位 vs 第3位, 相差9位)
-0.13
Kobe Franklin替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Jonathan Osorio 未进大名单 (0球, 3助攻)
Alonso Coello替补席 (0球, 3助攻)
Derrick Etienne Jr.替补席 (2球, 0助攻)

New England

最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.14
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第12位, 相差9位)
+0.06
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.05

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.72
+0.72
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

34%

平局

29%

客胜

36%

进球数

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

双重机会

主胜或平局

64%

客胜或平局

66%

非平局

71%

双方进球

56%

44%

关键因素
  • Depleted squad for Toronto: Missing players Kobe Franklin, Jonathan Osorio, Alonso Coello, and Derrick Etienne Jr. significantly weaken the team
  • Offensive slump: Toronto recently averaged just 1.0 goal compared to their season average of 1.5
  • Consistent threat: New England scored reliably in recent matches, averaging 1.6 goals per game
风险因素
  • Defensive instability: New England concede a very high average of 3.25 goals in away matches
  • Vulnerable home record: Toronto has failed to keep a single clean sheet at home this season
  • Tight projection: The mathematical model shows an extremely close match with a 36% probability for New England and 34% for Toronto
概述

Toronto host New England at BMO Field

Major League Soccer match on August 15, 2026, 11:30 PM

Toronto sit in 12th place with 17 points

New England are in 3rd place with 30 points

The standings point to a clear gap between the teams

近期状态

Toronto form: LDDLD

The home team is winless in 5 matches with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

New England form: LDWDL

The visitors recently recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Toronto score an average of 1.33 goals and concede 1.78 goals per match

At home, Toronto has not kept a single clean sheet in 13 matches this season

New England average 1.56 goals scored and 1.28 goals conceded

In away matches, the visitors concede an average of 3.25 goals

历史交锋

5 head-to-head matches

Toronto won 2 times, New England won 1 time, with 2 draws

The goal difference is balanced at 3:3

The last meeting on July 22, 2026, ended in a 0:0 draw

关键球员

Dániel Sallói with 4 goals and 3 assists in 18 season appearances

Josh Sargent scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist in 11 matches

Djordje Mihailovic has 2 goals and 2 assists in 8 games

Carles Gil stands out with 7 goals and 3 assists in 18 matches

Dor Turgeman recorded 4 goals and 5 assists this season

Peyton Miller contributed 4 goals and 1 assist in 16 appearances

门将

Luka Gavran played 18 matches in goal and recorded 3 clean sheets

Matt Turner also made 18 appearances and kept 4 clean sheets

影响因素

Played on natural grass at BMO Field

Historically, matches at this stadium average 2.6 goals per game

The Over 2.5 goals rate at this venue stands at 60%

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。