比赛报告 →
Sporting KC – Portland Timbers3 : 3
模型为何这样判断
Sporting KC
1.39
总 xG
3.12
Portland Timbers
1.73
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Sporting KC | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.2球) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.75倍) | −0.61 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失2.4球 vs 联赛平均1.8球) | +0.60 | |
| 最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.4球) | +0.36 | |
| 状态上升 (2.4 vs 1.2 赛季平均) | +0.36 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球) | +0.01 | |
| Lasse Berg Johnsen未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| Cole Bassett替补席 (3球, 4助攻) | ||
| Finn Surman未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.3球 vs 总体1.8球) |
关键因素
- Expected away advantage: The model calculates 1.73 expected goals for Portland Timbers and a 44% win chance
- Historical dominance: Portland Timbers won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches with a 16:6 goal record
- Offensive output: Sporting KC averaged 7.8 shots on target in recent matches
风险
- Away defensive vulnerability: Portland Timbers concede an average of 2.60 goals per away match
- High defensive instability: Sporting KC concede an average of 2.41 goals per game overall this season
- Key absences: Portland Timbers are missing F. Surman (inner ligament injury) and J. Mosquera (ankle surgery)
全部概率
赛果
Sporting KC30%
平局26%
Portland Timbers44%
进球
大于 1.583%
小于 1.517%
大于 2.560%
小于 2.540%
大于 3.538%
小于 3.562%
双重机会
Sporting KC或平局56%
Portland Timbers或平局70%
非平局74%
双方均进球
是63%
否37%
最可能的比分
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:3
最终比分
首发阵容
Sporting KC 4-4-2 · Portland Timbers 4-3-3
Sporting KC
- 30 S. Cleveland
- 13 J. Reynolds
- 15 J. Miller
- 28 W. Meyer
- 18 E. Karic
- 11 A. Inácio da Silva
- 22 Z. Bassong
- 20 K. Agyabeng
- 14 C. Harris
- 19 T. Calheira
- 17 S. Afrifa
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 12 R. Hernández Pimentel
- 2 J. Waterman
- 4 K. Miller
- 27 J. Fory
- 80 J. Ortiz Landázuri
- 21 D. Chará Zamora
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 14 V. Janssen
- 99 K. Velde
替补
- 24 R. Ramos Jr.
- 29 S. Garfield-Reid
- 1 J. Pulskamp
- 2 I. James
- 16 J. Bartlett
- 23 E. Bartlow
- 93 M. Suleymanov
- 99 J. Reid
- 12 J. Kortkamp
- 11 A. Alves Santos
- 15 E. Miller
- 23 I. Smith
- 25 T. Muse
- 28 A. Aravena Guzmán
- 73 E. Izoita
- 17 C. Bassett
- 22 O. Fernandez
- 30 J. Caicedo Barrera
准备开始了吗？
创建账户，探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。
创建账户 →