比赛报告 →
LA Galaxy – Portland Timbers2 : 0
模型为何这样判断
LA Galaxy
1.71
总 xG
3.29
Portland Timbers
1.58
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | LA Galaxy | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.2球) | +0.65 | +0.65 |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | −0.13 | |
| 状态下滑 (1.4 vs 1.8 赛季平均) | −0.13 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球) | +0.12 | |
| 状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | +0.12 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.8球) | −0.02 | |
| Erik Thommy替补席 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| Hirving Lozano未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| Cole Bassett替补席 (3球, 4助攻) | ||
| Finn Surman未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 主场表现强势 (场均1.8球 vs 总体1.4球) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.4球 vs 总体1.8球) |
关键因素
- Matchup advantage: LA Galaxy averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches, facing a Portland Timbers defense conceding 2.64 goals per away game
- Form gap: LA Galaxy averaged 1.8 goals per match recently, while Portland Timbers remain winless in their last 5 games
- Model signal: The calculations indicate a 40% chance of a home win and a 66% probability of both teams scoring
风险
- Defensive vulnerability for Portland Timbers with an average of 2.64 goals conceded per away game
- LA Galaxy conceded an average of 2.8 goals per match over their last 5 games
全部概率
赛果
LA Galaxy40%
平局26%
Portland Timbers34%
进球
大于 1.585%
小于 1.515%
大于 2.564%
小于 2.536%
大于 3.542%
小于 3.558%
双重机会
LA Galaxy或平局66%
Portland Timbers或平局60%
非平局74%
双方均进球
是66%
否34%
最可能的比分
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
5%
首发阵容
LA Galaxy 4-2-3-1 · Portland Timbers 4-1-4-1
LA Galaxy
- 12 J. Marcinkowski
- 2 L. Calegari
- 15 J. Haak
- 25 C. Garcés Torres
- 14 J. Nelson
- 17 P. Ruíz
- 6 S. Roberto Carnicer
- 28 J. Paintsil
- 18 M. Reus
- 21 R. Taylor
- 99 J. De Mello
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 12 R. Hernández Pimentel
- 2 J. Waterman
- 4 K. Miller
- 27 J. Fory
- 30 J. Caicedo Barrera
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 80 J. Ortiz Landázuri
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 99 K. Velde
- 14 V. Janssen
替补
- 1 N. Mićović
- 3 J. Aude
- 4 M. Yoshida
- 5 J. Glesnes
- 8 L. Sanabria Magolé
- 22 E. Wynder
- 26 H. Miller
- 27 E. Thommy
- 76 T.Elgersma
- 3 M. Williamson
- 11 A. Alves Santos
- 15 E. Miller
- 23 I. Smith
- 25 T. Muse
- 28 A. Aravena Guzmán
- 73 E. Izoita
- 17 C. Bassett
- 21 D. Chará Zamora
- 22 O. Fernandez
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