比赛报告 →
Columbus Crew – New England1 : 3
模型为何这样判断
Columbus Crew
1.23
总 xG
2.86
New England
1.63
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Columbus Crew | New England |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.78倍) | −0.75 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.2球) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.37倍) | +0.34 | |
| 小样本 (9场) - 均值回归 | −0.15 | |
| 排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第5位, 相差10位) | −0.14 | |
| 排名优势 (第5位 vs 第15位, 相差10位) | +0.08 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | −0.07 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | −0.06 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | +0.03 | |
| Dániel Gazdag未进大名单 (3球, 0助攻) | ||
| Dylan Chambost替补席 (0球, 2助攻) | ||
| 57%进球产出缺失 (仅56%可用) |
关键因素
- New England recently averaged 5.4 shots on target, whereas Columbus Crew averaged only 3.4 in their recent matches
- The mathematical model favors the visitors, calculating a 45% probability for a New England victory
- Columbus Crew enters this match on a negative run of three consecutive losses, while the visitors are much more solid in 5th place
风险
- Dániel Gazdag and Dylan Chambost are missing, leaving the hosts with only 56% of their usual goal threat available
- New England concedes an average of 2.14 goals per away match
- The visitors' recent form trend is negative, with their goal production dropping to 1.4 goals recently
全部概率
赛果
Columbus Crew27%
平局27%
New England45%
进球
大于 1.579%
小于 1.521%
大于 2.554%
小于 2.546%
大于 3.532%
小于 3.568%
双重机会
Columbus Crew或平局55%
New England或平局73%
非平局73%
双方均进球
是58%
否42%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
1:3
最终比分
首发阵容
Columbus Crew 4-4-2 · New England 4-1-4-1
Columbus Crew
- 28 P. Schulte
- 31 S. Moreira
- 3 E. Bailly
- 25 S. Zawadzki
- 18 M. Amundsen
- 23 M. Farsi
- 50 T. Karumanchi
- 20 A. Tavares Gomes
- 16 T. Habroune
- 10 B. Méndez Portela
- 77 J. Martínez
New England
- 30 M. Turner
- 8 M. Polster
- 22 E. Kohler
- 2 M. Fofana
- 23 W. Sands
- 21 B. Raines
- 11 J. Harrison
- 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
- 80 A. Yusuf
- 25 P. Miller
- 99 D. Turgeman
替补
- 1 N. Hagen Godoy
- 2 M. Herrera Mansilla
- 7 D. Chambost
- 14 A. Sejdic
- 12 C. Ruvalcaba Perez
- 24 E. Bush
- 33 G. Tapia Dubournais
- 26 L. Giaccone
- 11 B. Lennon
- 73 J. Gunn
- 4 T. Beason
- 7 G. Yow
- 12 I. Feingold
- 14 J. Yueill
- 15 C. Baker
- 77 D. Fagúndez Pepe
- 27 W. Harris
- 65 J. Siqueira
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