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Major League Soccer

Orlando City - Philadelphia Union

05/13/2026, 11:30 PM

4 : 3
预期进球
Orlando City
1.3
Total xG
2.8
Philadelphia Union
1.5
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
OCPU

Orlando City

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.7倍)
-1.19
防守不足 (场均失2.8球 vs 联赛平均1.9球)
+0.91
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.60
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2球)
+0.20
状态上升 (2 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
+0.20
Adrián Marín替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
Zakaria Taifi替补席 (0球, 2助攻)

Philadelphia Union

防守实力 (场均失1.9球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
+0.61
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
-0.23
状态上升 (1.3 vs 1 赛季平均)
+0.10
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.06
11%进球产出缺失 (仅75%可用)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.71
+0.71
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

32%

平局

28%

客胜

40%

进球数

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

双重机会

主胜或平局

60%

客胜或平局

68%

非平局

72%

双方进球

59%

41%

关键因素
  • Pipeline prediction: Philadelphia Union has a higher win probability of 40% compared to Orlando City's 32%
  • Offensive Trend: Orlando City is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals)
  • Defensive Trend: Philadelphia Union has conceded more goals on average in recent games (2.33) than their season average (1.9)
风险因素
  • Philadelphia Union averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games (average)
  • The absence of regular goalkeeper Andre Blake (12 season appearances) for Philadelphia Union
概述

Orlando City (14th place, 10 points) hosts Philadelphia Union (15th place, 6 points) in a Major League Soccer match. The game takes place on May 13, 2026, 11:30 PM. Both teams are in the lower half of the table, battling for crucial points.

近期状态

Orlando City's form in their last five matches is LWLWL, with two wins and three losses. Their last result was a loss. Philadelphia Union's form is DDLDL, with three draws and two losses in their last five matches, with their last result also being a loss. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

统计数据

Orlando City has scored an average of 1.33 goals per game this season and conceded 2.83 goals per game. At home, they scored 1.29 goals and conceded 1.29 goals per home game. Philadelphia Union averages 0.83 goals scored and 1.58 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they scored 0.8 goals and conceded 1.4 goals per away game. Orlando City has kept 0 clean sheets this season, while Philadelphia Union has 2. Both teams scored in 7 of Orlando City's games and in 7 of Philadelphia Union's games. More than 2.5 goals were scored in 9 of Orlando City's matches and in 7 of Philadelphia Union's matches.

历史交锋

In four previous head-to-head encounters, the record is balanced. Orlando City secured two wins, Philadelphia Union one win, and one match ended in a draw. The goal difference stands at 7:7. The last meeting on April 5, 2025, ended in a 0:0 draw.

关键球员

For Orlando City, midfielder Martín Ojeda stands out with 7 season goals and an average rating of 7.34, which increased to 7.75 in the last 5 games. Attacker Justin Ellis has 1 goal and 2 assists with a rating of 7.12. Iván Angulo, also in attack, provided 3 assists. For Philadelphia Union, Milan Iloski in attack is the top scorer with 2 goals and 1 assist. Midfielder Danley Jean Jacques scored 2 season goals. Defender Nathan Harriel contributed 1 goal and has a solid average rating of 7.00, increasing to 7.18 in the last 5 games.

门将

Orlando City's goalkeeper, Maxime Crépeau, started in 5 of the last 5 matches. Orlando City has kept 0 clean sheets this season. For Philadelphia Union, Andrew Rick is expected to start, having made no season appearances so far. Regular goalkeeper Andre Blake is out due to injury. Philadelphia Union has recorded 2 clean sheets this season.

影响因素

Orlando City showed a balanced performance in home games with an average of 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per game. Philadelphia Union conceded an average of 1.4 goals per away game. No specific stadium or weather influences are available in the dataset.

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