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Major League Soccer

San Diego - Los Angeles FC

05/03/2026, 01:30 AM

2 : 2
预期进球
San Diego
1.4
Total xG
2.7
Los Angeles FC
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
xG 分解
SDLAF

San Diego

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.79倍)
-0.95
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.51
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.27
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.7 赛季平均)
-0.27
排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第3位, 相差8位)
-0.12
Lewis Morgan 替补席 (0球, 2助攻)

Los Angeles FC

防守实力 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.49
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
-0.10
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第11位, 相差8位)
+0.05
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.01
Heung-min Son替补席 (0球, 6助攻)
Timothy Tillman未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
Mark Delgado替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Mathieu Choinière替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
23%进球产出缺失 (仅55%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体2.1球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.70
+0.70
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

38%

平局

29%

客胜

33%

进球数

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

双重机会

主胜或平局

67%

客胜或平局

62%

非平局

71%

双方进球

56%

44%

关键因素
  • The mathematical model predicts a close match with a slight home win probability of 38% for San Diego and 33% for Los Angeles FC
  • San Diego's goal production has significantly decreased recently (avg. 0.8 goals per game), while Los Angeles FC maintains a stable scoring rate (avg. 2.25 goals per game)
  • San Diego won both previous head-to-head encounters against Los Angeles FC (5:3 overall goal difference)
风险因素
  • Los Angeles FC's starting lineup is significantly weakened, with only 56% of their usual attacking strength available without Heung-min Son (0T/6A), Timothy Tillman (0T/2A), Mark Delgado (1T/1A), and Mathieu Choinière (2T/0A)
  • San Diego is in a clear crisis of form, with five consecutive losses
  • Despite dominant possession (63%), San Diego recorded an average of only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
概述

San Diego (11th place, 11 points) hosts Los Angeles FC (3rd place, 20 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on May 3, 2026, 3:30 AM. Los Angeles FC aims for a top spot in the league table, while San Diego seeks to move away from the bottom half

近期状态

San Diego's current form is poor, marked by five consecutive losses ('LLLLL'). In these matches, San Diego recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses. Los Angeles FC shows mixed form ('WLLDW') with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games. The mathematical model predicts a tight game with a 38% home win probability for San Diego and a 33% away win probability for Los Angeles FC. The probability of a draw is 29%

统计数据

San Diego averages 1.7 goals scored and 1.7 goals conceded per game. At home, they are stronger offensively with an average of 1.83 goals and defensively more solid with 1.0 goals conceded per home game. Los Angeles FC also averages 1.7 goals scored per game but impresses with only 0.6 goals conceded on average this season. Away from home, Los Angeles FC scores an average of 2.0 goals and concedes 1.0 goal. San Diego had 3 clean sheets, while Los Angeles FC achieved 8 clean sheets. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 7 of San Diego's games and 4 of Los Angeles FC's games

历史交锋

In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, San Diego dominated the record. San Diego won 2 games, while Los Angeles FC secured no victories. The goal difference stands at 5:3 in favor of San Diego. The last encounter on September 1, 2025, ended with a 2:1 victory for San Diego

关键球员

For San Diego, Anders Dreyer (5 goals, 3 assists) and Marcus Ingvartsen (5 goals, 2 assists) are key offensive players. Onni Valakari contributes with 3 goals and 1 assist in midfield. San Diego's usual starting eleven strength is at 100%, however, Lewis Morgan (0T/2A) is not in the lineup. In the Los Angeles FC team, Denis Bouanga (4 goals, 1 assist) stands out, having recently scored 3 goals in 5 games. Stephen Eustaquio (1 goal, 1 assist) and Jude Terry (1 goal) are other important players

门将

San Diego's goalkeeper CJ dos Santos has made no appearances this season. On the opposing side, Hugo Lloris has played 9 times for Los Angeles FC and recorded 8 clean sheets. Overall, San Diego kept 3 clean sheets this season, while Los Angeles FC recorded 8 clean sheets

影响因素

San Diego shows a more stable defense at home with an average of 1.0 goals conceded, compared to 1.7 goals conceded in their season average. Offensive performance is also slightly better with 1.83 home goals compared to their season average. Los Angeles FC has a solid away defense, with an average of 1.0 goals conceded and 2.0 goals scored

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