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Major League Soccer

Charlotte - Cincinnati

05/09/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 2
预期进球
Charlotte
2.0
Total xG
3.4
Cincinnati
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
CHACIN

Charlotte

小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.29
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.18
状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.8 赛季平均)
-0.18
防守实力 (场均失1.9球 vs 联赛平均1.9球)
-0.01
Harry Toffolo未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)

Cincinnati

最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.6球)
+0.18
状态上升 (2.6 vs 2 赛季平均)
+0.18
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.06
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.25倍)
+0.04
Ender Echenique替补席 (1球, 3助攻)
Tom Barlow替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.5球 vs 总体2球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.69
+0.69
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

50%

平局

24%

客胜

25%

进球数

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

65%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

43%

Under 3.5

57%

双重机会

主胜或平局

75%

客胜或平局

50%

非平局

76%

双方进球

66%

34%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis favors Charlotte with a 50% probability of winning
  • Charlotte historically dominated head-to-head matches and shows a strong home defense with an average of 0.71 goals conceded
  • Cincinnati is in good form, unbeaten in 5 games, and recorded 2 consecutive wins recently
风险因素
  • Cincinnati is missing key players Ender Echenique (1G/3A) and Tom Barlow (2G/0A), accounting for 8% of their seasonal assists
  • Cincinnati concedes an average of 3.6 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities
  • Charlotte's recent goal production has declined (1.2) compared to their season average (1.8)
概述

Charlotte (8th place, 14 points) hosts Cincinnati (6th place, 15 points) in Major League Soccer. The match is scheduled for May 10, 2026, 12:30 AM. The mathematical analysis identifies Charlotte as a slight favorite with a 50% probability of winning.

近期状态

Charlotte shows a negative form trend with 'LWLLL' from their last five games, corresponding to 1 win and 4 losses. The team is currently on a streak of 3 consecutive losses. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is in good form with 'DDDWW', tallying 2 wins and 3 draws from their last five matches. Cincinnati recorded 2 consecutive wins recently.

统计数据

Charlotte averages 1.64 goals scored per game and concedes 1.73 goals. In home games, the average is 1.71 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded. For Charlotte, 8 games ended with both teams scoring, and 8 games had over 2.5 goals. Cincinnati averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.27 goals conceded per game this season. Away from home, Cincinnati averages 2.2 goals scored but concedes 3.6 goals. For Cincinnati, both teams scored in 7 games, and 6 games had over 2.5 goals.

历史交锋

In the four historical head-to-head encounters, Charlotte dominated with 3 wins, while Cincinnati has not secured a victory, with 1 match ending in a draw. Charlotte scored 7 goals and conceded 2. The last meeting on August 10, 2025, ended in a 1-0 victory for Charlotte.

关键球员

For Charlotte, Pep Biel (5 goals, 4 assists) and Idan Toklomati (3 goals, 1 assist) are important offensive players. Wilfried Zaha (2 goals, 2 assists) also contributes to goal threat. For Cincinnati, Kévin Denkey (6 goals, 1 assist) and Evander (5 goals, 1 assist) stand out. Pavel Bucha is another important player with 1 goal and 2 assists.

门将

Kristijan Kahlina is Charlotte's goalkeeper with a season average rating of 7.18 and a declining form (6.78 in the last 5 games). He recorded 1 clean sheet. For Cincinnati, Roman Celentano is in goal, with an average rating of 7.1 and rising form (7.27 in the last 5 games). He has 2 clean sheets.

影响因素

Charlotte shows strong home defense, conceding an average of 0.71 goals in home matches. Cincinnati concedes an average of 3.6 goals away from home, but also scores 2.2 goals per away game.

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