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Major League Soccer

CF Montréal - Toronto

07/16/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 0
预期进球
CF Montréal
1.6
Total xG
2.7
Toronto
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
xG 分解
CMTOR

CF Montréal

防守实力 (场均失2.2球 vs 联赛平均1.9球)
+0.27
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.25
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.07
Prince Owusu未进大名单 (9球, 6助攻)
Wikelman José Carmona Torres未进大名单 (4球, 2助攻)
Iván Jaime未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
60%进球产出缺失 (仅37%可用)

Toronto

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.62倍)
-0.78
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.43
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.11
状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
-0.11
Jonathan Osorio 未进大名单 (0球, 3助攻)
Emilio Aristizábal替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.8球 vs 总体1.6球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.3球)
+0.81
+0.81
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

50%

平局

28%

客胜

22%

进球数

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

双重机会

主胜或平局

78%

客胜或平局

50%

非平局

72%

双方进球

53%

47%

关键因素
  • CF Montréal averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches, showing a strong offensive volume
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 50% with 1.64 expected goals for Montréal
  • Toronto's form trend is heavily declining with 4 defeats in their last 5 matches
风险因素
  • Prince Owusu, Wikelman José Carmona Torres, and Iván Jaime are missing, leaving only 37% of the seasonal goal threat available
  • Toronto concedes an average of 3.67 goals per away match, showing severe defensive struggles on the road
  • CF Montréal has failed to win any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Toronto, conceding 13 goals
概述

CF Montréal (12th place, 14 points) host Toronto (11th place, 14 points) at Stade Saputo

Major League Soccer match on July 16, 2026, 11:30 PM

A direct duel between two teams tied on points near the bottom of the table

近期状态

Montréal with form LWDLD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses in the last 5 games)

Most recently, they recorded a spectacular 4-4 draw against DC United

Toronto arrives with a form of LDLLL and three consecutive defeats

统计数据

Montréal scores an average of 1.57 goals and concedes 2.21 per match

Toronto also averages 1.57 goals scored but concedes 2.07 goals

The visitors show a high rate of both teams scoring with 12 out of 14 matches

历史交锋

In 4 head-to-head matches, Toronto has 3 wins and there was 1 draw

CF Montréal has not won any game with a goal ratio of 3-13

The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw on August 30, 2025

关键球员

Matty Longstaff convinces in midfield with 2 goals, 3 assists, and a rating of 7.02

Daniel Ríos recently contributed 2 goals in his last 5 games

For Toronto, Josh Sargent has been clinical with 2 goals in his recent matches

门将

Thomas Guilier is in goal for Montréal with an average home rating of 6.71

Luka Gavran guards Toronto's goal, having made 14 appearances so far this season

Montréal has recorded 3 clean sheets, whereas Toronto has only achieved 1

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at Stade Saputo

Historically, Stade Saputo sees an average of 2.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of the past matches played at this venue

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