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Major League Soccer

Columbus Crew - Cincinnati

07/25/2026, 11:15 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Columbus Crew
1.5
Total xG
2.9
Cincinnati
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:2

6%

2:0

6%
xG 分解
CCCIN

Columbus Crew

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.68倍)
-0.58
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.23
排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第5位, 相差6位)
-0.09
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.08
Diego Rossi未进大名单 (6球, 1助攻)
Hugo Picard替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Dániel Gazdag替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
48%进球产出缺失 (仅67%可用)

Cincinnati

最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均3.6球)
+0.33
状态上升 (3.6 vs 2.5 赛季平均)
+0.33
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.11
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第11位, 相差6位)
+0.04
Bryan Ramírez替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.5球 vs 总体2.5球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.3球)
+0.80
+0.80
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

37%

平局

28%

客胜

36%

进球数

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

双重机会

主胜或平局

64%

客胜或平局

63%

非平局

72%

双方进球

60%

40%

关键因素
  • Tactical dominance: Cincinnati recently averaged 6.2 shots on target per match, while Columbus managed only 3.0
  • High-scoring away matches: Cincinnati concedes an average of 3.83 goals on the road while scoring 2.67
  • Balanced prediction: The mathematical model calculates an almost identical win chance of 37% for the hosts and 36% for the visitors
风险因素
  • Diego Rossi, Hugo Picard, and Dániel Gazdag are missing for Columbus Crew, leaving only 68% of their usual goal threat available
  • Fatigue factor: Both teams have had only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
  • Offensive struggles: Columbus recently averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match
概述

Columbus Crew (11th place, 16 points) host Cincinnati (5th place, 23 points)

Major League Soccer match on July 26, 2026, 1:15 AM

Clash at the Lower.com Field on grass

Cincinnati looks to close in on the top, while Columbus desperately needs points

近期状态

Columbus Crew struggles with form: LLDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Recently, Columbus suffered a 1-2 defeat against New York City

Overall, they recorded only 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches

Cincinnati exhibits a positive trend with a form of DLDWW

Last match ended in a thrilling 4-3 victory over Vancouver Whitecaps

统计数据

Cincinnati boasts a strong attack, averaging 2.5 goals scored per match

However, the visitors also concede an average of 2.5 goals per game

Their defense is highly vulnerable on the road, conceding avg. 3.83 goals

Columbus Crew averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded per match

At home, Columbus's defense is more stable, conceding avg. 1.14 goals

历史交锋

Even historical record over 5 head-to-head matches

Both teams have won 2 games each, with 1 match ending in a draw

The overall goal difference is 10-6 in favor of Columbus Crew

The last direct encounter on November 8, 2025, ended in a 2-1 win for Cincinnati

关键球员

Max Arfsten is key for Columbus with 4 goals and 4 assists in 16 appearances

Sekou Tidiany Bangoura shows rising form with 1 goal in 14 games

Taha Habroune contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in 15 matches

For Cincinnati, Evander stands out with 10 goals and 7 assists in 15 games

Kévin Denkey also shines with 10 goals and 2 assists this season

Pavel Bucha adds offensive power with 4 goals and 4 assists

门将

Patrick Schulte plays in goal for Columbus Crew and kept 3 clean sheets this season

Roman Celentano recorded 2 clean sheets for Cincinnati so far

影响因素

The match is played on grass at the Lower.com Field

Home advantage could aid Columbus, who concede only avg. 1.14 goals at home

The historical average at this venue stands at 1.75 goals per game

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