比赛报告 →
Seattle Sounders – Chicago Fire2 : 2
模型为何这样判断
Seattle Sounders
1.29
总 xG
2.74
Chicago Fire
1.44
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Seattle Sounders | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.2球) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 小样本 (9场) - 均值回归 | +0.24 | |
| 最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球) | −0.17 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.6 vs 1.2 赛季平均) | −0.17 | |
| 排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第3位, 相差10位) | −0.14 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | −0.10 | |
| 排名优势 (第3位 vs 第13位, 相差10位) | +0.07 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | +0.01 | |
| Osaze De Rosario替补席 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| Jonathan Bamba替补席 (2球, 2助攻) | ||
| Leonardo Barroso替补席 (0球, 2助攻) | ||
| 主场表现强势 (场均1.7球 vs 总体1.2球) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.4球 vs 总体2球) |
关键因素
- Form gap: Chicago Fire recorded 3 wins and 1 draw in their last five matches, while Seattle failed to win a single game during this period
- Tactical profile: Seattle recently averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match with 44.4% ball possession
- Model prediction: The mathematical model favors 3rd-placed Chicago Fire with an away win probability of 39%
风险
- Offensive stagnation: Seattle's goal production has dropped significantly to 0.6 goals per game recently, compared to a season average of 1.2
- Defensive vulnerability: Chicago Fire concedes an average of 1.67 goals per away match
- Limited dataset: The provided dataset contains no performance records for Chicago Fire on artificial turf
全部概率
赛果
Seattle Sounders32%
平局29%
Chicago Fire39%
进球
大于 1.577%
小于 1.523%
大于 2.552%
小于 2.548%
大于 3.529%
小于 3.571%
双重机会
Seattle Sounders或平局61%
Chicago Fire或平局68%
非平局71%
双方均进球
是57%
否43%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
首发阵容
Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1 · Chicago Fire 4-3-3
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 20 K. Kim
- 39 S. Hawkins
- 5 N. Tolo
- 37 S. Brunell
- 16 A. Roldan
- 90 S. Gomez
- 11 A. Rusnák
- 14 P. Rothrock
- 9 D. Joveljić
Chicago Fire
- 1 C. Brady
- 24 R. Dean
- 5 S. Rogers
- 3 J. Elliott
- 15 A. Gutman
- 6 A. Salétros
- 42 D. D'Avilla
- 17 R. Lod
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 9 R. Lewandowski
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
替补
- 7 C. Roldan
- 19 D. Musovski
- 24 S. Frei
- 31 H. Dotson
- 35 A. Lopez
- 13 J. Morris
- 4 R. Sailor
- 16 J. Waterman
- 2 L. Caetano Barroso
- 12 P. Dithejane
- 14 V. Radojević
- 19 J. Bamba
- 22 M. Pineda
- 35 S. Oregel Jr.
- 44 J. Cohen
- 47 S. Williams
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