Major League Soccer
CF Montréal - Cincinnati
09/26/2026, 11:30 PM
预期进球
1.6
2.9
1.4
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
6%2:2
6%xG 分解
CF Montréal
Cincinnati
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
40%
平局
27%
客胜
32%
进球数
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
双重机会
主胜或平局
68%
客胜或平局
60%
非平局
73%
双方进球
是
61%
否
39%
关键因素
- Defensive struggle on the road: Cincinnati concedes an astronomical average of 4.11 goals per away match
- Key absences for visitors: Cincinnati plays without top scorer Kévin Denkey (14 goals, 4 assists) and midfielder Pavel Bucha
- Model advantage: The mathematical prediction favors CF Montréal with a 40% home win probability
风险因素
- Montréal's poor form with 5 consecutive losses and a struggling offense averaging only 0.4 goals recently
- Cincinnati's declining goal production averaging 1.2 goals in recent matches compared to their 2.2 season average
概述
CF Montréal hosts Cincinnati at Stade Saputo
MLS match on September 26, 2026, 11:30 PM
CF Montréal currently sits in 15th place with 21 points
Cincinnati occupies 9th place with 33 points
A lower-table clash with the home side as slight favorites according to the model
近期状态
CF Montréal enters with a form string of LLLLL
Five defeats in their last five matches highlight a difficult run
Cincinnati arrives with a form string of DLLDD
Two losses and three draws mean the visitors are also searching for a win
统计数据
CF Montréal averages 1.19 goals scored and 2.04 goals conceded per match this season
At home, Montréal averages 1.23 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded
Cincinnati averages 2.16 goals scored and 2.44 goals conceded overall
On the road, Cincinnati scores a strong 2.22 goals but concedes an extreme average of 4.11 goals
历史交锋
There have been 5 head-to-head matches between these teams
Cincinnati has won 4 times, compared to 1 victory for CF Montréal
Cincinnati leads the goal tally with 15 goals scored against 7 conceded
Their last direct encounter on March 22, 2026, ended in a 3-4 win for Cincinnati
关键球员
Prince Owusu leads Montréal's attack with 13 goals and 6 assists this season
Matty Longstaff contributes from midfield with 2 goals and a 6.94 average rating
Daniel Ríos provides offensive support with 4 goals in 22 league games
Evander is Cincinnati's star man with 13 goals, 10 assists, and a 7.93 rating
Kenji Mboma Dem has recorded 5 goals and 1 assist so far this season
Tom Barlow adds firepower with 6 goals and 2 assists in 25 appearances
门将
Sébastian Breza guards the net for Montréal and has recorded 4 clean sheets this season
Breza shows a rising form trend with a 7.06 rating over his recent games
Roman Celentano has made 23 appearances for Cincinnati, keeping 2 clean sheets
Celentano shows a declining form trend with a 6.22 rating in his last matches
影响因素
Home match advantage at Stade Saputo on a natural grass pitch
Matches at this venue have recently averaged 3.0 goals per game
Montréal is much more stable at home (1.31 goals conceded) than away (2.77)
Cincinnati suffers from extreme defensive vulnerabilities away from home, conceding 4.11 goals on average