比赛报告 →
Inter Miami – CF Montréal7 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Inter Miami
2.12
总 xG
3.59
CF Montréal
1.47
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Inter Miami | CF Montréal |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.2球) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | −0.32 | |
| 状态下滑 (1.4 vs 2.4 赛季平均) | −0.32 | |
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.33倍) | +0.31 | |
| 排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第2位, 相差11位) | −0.18 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失2球 vs 联赛平均1.8球) | +0.17 | |
| 小样本 (9场) - 均值回归 | −0.14 | |
| 排名优势 (第2位 vs 第13位, 相差11位) | +0.11 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球) | −0.01 | |
| M. Silvetti未进大名单 (3球, 4助攻) | ||
| Daniel Ríos替补席 (3球, 0助攻) | ||
| Victor Loturi替补席 (1球, 1助攻) |
关键因素
- Matchup advantage: Miami's dominant home attack of 2.44 goals per game faces Montréal's weak away defense conceding 2.6 goals on average
- Sustained offensive quality: Despite M. Silvetti's injury, Inter Miami retain 92% of their season goal production with Lionel Messi and Luis Suárez leading the line
- Tactical threat: CF Montréal averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches, presenting a significant test for Miami's defense
风险
- Dip in form: Inter Miami exhibit a negative recent trend with only one victory in their last five competitive matches
- Vulnerable home defense: Miami concede a high average of 2.11 goals per match in front of their home crowd
- Squad limitations for Montréal: Attackers Daniel Ríos (3 goals) and Victor Loturi (1 goal) are missing from the lineup
全部概率
赛果
Inter Miami51%
平局23%
CF Montréal26%
进球
大于 1.588%
小于 1.512%
大于 2.570%
小于 2.531%
大于 3.548%
小于 3.552%
双重机会
Inter Miami或平局74%
CF Montréal或平局49%
非平局77%
双方均进球
是69%
否31%
最可能的比分
2:1
9%
2:2
7%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
3:2
5%
7:1
最终比分
首发阵容
Inter Miami 4-3-3 · CF Montréal 4-3-3
Inter Miami
- 97 D. St Clair
- 17 I. Fray
- 37 M. Falcón Picart
- 5 C. Casimiro
- 32 N. Allen
- 7 R. de Paul
- 42 Y. Bright
- 8 T. Segovia Pérez
- 10 L. Messi
- 19 G. Berterame
- 9 L. Suárez Díaz
CF Montréal
- 31 T. Guilier
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 2 J. Neal
- 4 B. Vera Ramírez
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 8 M. Longstaff
- 6 S. Piette
- 21 F. Herbers
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 9 P. Owusu
- 23 N. Streit
替补
- 4 F. Mura
- 22 D. Ayala
- 34 R. Ríos Novo
- 56 D. Pintér
- 76 C. Abadia-Reda
- 88 A. Shaw
- 59 P. Plambeck
- 15 F. Caicedo Jaramillo
- 54 L. Delinois
- 10 A. Sánchez Sánchez
- 17 D. Sealy
- 7 D. Pereira Gil
- 1 S. Breza
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
- 16 W. Carmona Torres
- 22 V. Loturi
- 29 O. Escobar
- 5 B. Craig
准备开始了吗？
创建账户，探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。
创建账户 →