Major League Soccer
Philadelphia Union - Cincinnati
09/09/2026, 11:45 PM
预期进球
2.2
3.4
1.2
1:1
10%2:1
10%2:0
8%3:1
7%3:0
6%xG 分解
Philadelphia Union
Cincinnati
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
59%
平局
22%
客胜
19%
进球数
Over 1.5
86%
Under 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
65%
Under 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
43%
Under 3.5
57%
双重机会
主胜或平局
81%
客胜或平局
41%
非平局
78%
双方进球
是
63%
否
37%
关键因素
- Squad restriction: Only 72% of the regular starting lineup strength is available with Milan Iloski (11 goals/2 assists) and Indiana Vassilev (3 goals/1 assist) missing
- Form trend gap: Philadelphia Union is scoring more frequently recently (2.2) compared to their season average (1.7), while Cincinnati's scoring has stalled at 1.6 compared to 2.2 on average
- Tactical impact: Philadelphia Union averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches, showing a strong offensive approach
风险因素
- Short recovery: Cincinnati enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Defensive vulnerability away: Cincinnati concedes a very high average of 3.75 goals per away match this season
概述
Philadelphia Union (9th place, 27 points) host Cincinnati (6th place, 31 points) at Subaru Park
Major League Soccer match on September 9, 2026, 11:45 PM
The home side enters as the favorites with a calculated 59% win probability according to the mathematical model
近期状态
Philadelphia Union is in strong form with WDDWW and is unbeaten in their last five matches
Cincinnati travels with a form record of DWDLD, securing only one victory in their last five outings
The hosts recorded 3 wins and 2 draws recently, while the visitors got 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Philadelphia Union averages 1.57 goals scored and 1.7 goals conceded per match this season
Cincinnati is highly productive with 2.23 goals scored per match but concedes an average of 2.32 goals
The visitors show severe defensive issues on the road, conceding an average of 3.75 goals per away game
历史交锋
The historical record is perfectly balanced with 2 wins for each side across 4 direct duels
The last matchup on August 30, 2025 ended in a 1-0 away victory for Philadelphia Union
A total of 16 goals have been scored in these 4 direct encounters
关键球员
Cavan Sullivan has been excellent in Philadelphia Union's midfield with 4 goals and 3 assists this season
Bruno Damiani added 3 goals and 2 assists in attack for the home side
Evander is the star player for Cincinnati, recording a brilliant tally of 13 goals and 10 assists from midfield
门将
Andre Blake guards the net for Philadelphia Union and has kept 4 clean sheets this season
Roman Celentano features in goal for Cincinnati and has recorded 2 clean sheets so far
影响因素
The match takes place on natural grass at Subaru Park
Subaru Park has historically produced high-scoring matches with an average of 3.2 goals per game
The model predicts 2.19 expected home goals and 1.18 expected away goals