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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Barracas Central - Sarmiento

04/02/2026, 06:00 PM

1 : 2
预期进球
Barracas Central
1.1
Total xG
1.9
Sarmiento
0.8
最可能的比分

0:0

16%

1:1

15%

1:0

15%

0:1

10%

2:0

9%
xG 分解
BCSAR

Barracas Central

状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
+0.19
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.19
防守不足 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.17
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.7倍)
+0.17
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球)
+0.09
Tomás Porra替补席 (0球, 2助攻)

Sarmiento

防守不足 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均0.8球)
+0.27
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.6倍)
-0.15
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.12
状态上升 (1 vs 0.8 赛季平均)
+0.06
11%进球产出缺失 (仅91%可用)
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.5球 vs 总体0.8球)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2球)
-0.50
-0.50
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

42%

平局

34%

客胜

24%

进球数

Over 1.5

60%

Under 1.5

40%

Over 2.5

31%

Under 2.5

69%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

双重机会

主胜或平局

76%

客胜或平局

58%

非平局

66%

双方进球

39%

61%

关键因素
  • Pipeline forecast: The mathematical analysis favors Barracas Central with a home win probability of 42%
  • Current form: Barracas Central is unbeaten in their last 5 games (WDWWD)
  • Offensive form: Barracas Central is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.1)
风险因素
  • Playmaker missing: Tomás Porra (0G/2A) is not in the lineup, affecting 17% of Barracas Central's usual assists
  • Low shot efficiency: Barracas Central averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Low shot efficiency: Sarmiento averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
概述

Barracas Central (8th place, 16 points) host Sarmiento (12th place, 13 points) on April 2, 2026, 8:00 PM in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

The home side holds a slight favorite role in this mid-table clash

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 42% probability, while a draw is at 34%

近期状态

Barracas Central shows strong form with WDWWD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) in their last five matches

Their last game ended in a draw

Sarmiento enters this encounter with a form of LWDLW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

Sarmiento's last match was a win

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Barracas Central scores an average of 0.91 goals per game and concedes 0.82 goals

At home, the average is 0.88 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded

Sarmiento scores an average of 0.73 goals per game and concedes 1.0 goal

Away from home, Sarmiento scores an average of 1.0 goal but concedes 7.0 goals (based on one away game)

Barracas Central has kept 3 clean sheets, Sarmiento has kept 4 clean sheets this season

历史交锋

In the 3 previous head-to-head matches, there was 1 win for Sarmiento and 2 draws

Barracas Central has not won any of the previous 3 encounters

The goal difference is 2:3 in favor of Sarmiento

The last meeting on September 20, 2025, ended with a 0:1 victory for Sarmiento

关键球员

For Barracas Central, Marcelo Miño is important with a rising form and an average rating of 8.07 in the last five games

Rodrigo Insúa is a key offensive factor with 2 season goals and one goal in the last five matches

Facundo Bruera contributed 1 goal and 1 assist this season and showed stable form in the last five games with 1 goal and 1 assist

For Sarmiento, Junior Marabel stands out with 5 season goals and 3 goals in the last five matches

Cristian Zabala scored 1 season goal and 1 goal in the last five games

Goalkeeper Javier Burrai is a reliable presence with a stable form trend and a rating of 7.40 in the last five games

门将

Barracas Central's goalkeeper Marcelo Miño maintains an average rating of 8.07 in the last five games and shows a rising form trend

He has recorded 3 clean sheets this season

Sarmiento's goalkeeper Javier Burrai has an average rating of 7.40 in the last five matches and a stable form trend

Sarmiento achieved 4 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Barracas Central displays a solid defense at home, conceding an average of 0.5 goals per home game

The offensive performance at home averages 0.88 goals per game

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