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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Rosario Central - Atlético Tucumán

04/05/2026, 12:00 AM

2 : 1
预期进球
Rosario Central
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Atlético Tucumán
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
RCAT

Rosario Central

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.36倍)
+0.59
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.33
排名优势 (第6位 vs 第13位, 相差7位)
+0.05
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.2球)
-0.04
Gastón Ávila未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
Julián Fernández未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
51%进球产出缺失 (仅60%可用)

Atlético Tucumán

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.21倍)
+0.20
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.12
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
-0.12
排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第6位, 相差7位)
-0.07
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.05

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2球)
-0.51
-0.51
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

49%

平局

30%

客胜

22%

进球数

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

双重机会

主胜或平局

78%

客胜或平局

51%

非平局

70%

双方进球

47%

53%

关键因素
  • Rosario Central exhibits better current form and a higher league position, underscoring their favoritism
  • Atlético Tucumán's weak away defense, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game, is a clear disadvantage
  • Rosario Central historically dominates head-to-head matches with 2 wins out of 3 encounters
风险因素
  • Rosario Central is playing with reduced squad strength, as only 61% of the usual starting eleven's goal threat is available without Gastón Ávila, Julián Fernández
  • Atlético Tucumán averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • The mathematical analysis predicts 1.47 expected goals for Rosario Central, indicating a rather moderate offensive performance
概述

Rosario Central (6th place, 18 points) hosts Atlético Tucumán (13th place, 9 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol on April 4, 2026, 9:00 PM

Rosario Central aims to establish itself in the upper half of the table

Atlético Tucumán needs crucial points in the fight against relegation

近期状态

Rosario Central shows a form of WWDWL across all competitions

This corresponds to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from the last 5 matches

The team recently recorded a loss

Atlético Tucumán's form is LLDLW

In the last 5 games, there was 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with the last game being a win

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Rosario Central averages 1.09 goals scored per game and concedes 0.82 goals

At home, the average is 1.0 home goals scored and 0.8 home goals conceded

Atlético Tucumán also scored 1.09 goals per game but conceded an average of 1.45 goals

Atlético Tucumán's away defense is particularly vulnerable, with an average of 2.2 goals conceded per away game

Rosario Central kept 4 clean sheets this season, Atlético Tucumán 3

Both teams scored in 5 games for Rosario Central and 7 games for Atlético Tucumán

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 games for Rosario Central and 7 games for Atlético Tucumán

历史交锋

In the 3 head-to-head matches between the two teams, Rosario Central dominated with 2 wins

Atlético Tucumán has not won any of these duels, with 1 draw

Rosario Central scored 4 goals, while Atlético Tucumán managed 1 goal

The last encounter ended in a 0-0 draw on August 9, 2025

The home team has been the dominant force in recent encounters

关键球员

For Rosario Central, key players include Jáminton Campaz (2 goals in the last 5 games with 1 goal and 2 assists this season, rising form), Alejo Veliz (1 assist in the last 5 games with 1 goal and 1 assist this season, stable form) and Enzo Giménez (1 goal in the last 5 games and for the season, stable form)

For Atlético Tucumán, Leandro Díaz (2 goals in the last 5 games with 4 goals and 1 assist this season, declining form), Franco Nicola (1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games with 1 goal and 1 assist this season, rising form) and Clever Ferreira (1 goal in the last 5 games and for the season, rising form) are in focus

门将

Jorge Broun is the goalkeeper for Rosario Central and played 1 game with an average rating of 7.45

Rosario Central has achieved a total of 4 clean sheets this season

Luis Ingolotti is the goalkeeper for Atlético Tucumán and played 11 games with an average rating of 6.43 and a declining form

Atlético Tucumán has achieved a total of 3 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Rosario Central exhibits a solid defense at home with an average of 0.8 goals conceded per game

Atlético Tucumán's away record shows a vulnerable defense with an average of 2.2 goals conceded per away game

The home team scores an average of 1.0 goals in home matches

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