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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

River Plate - Belgrano

04/05/2026, 09:00 PM

3 : 0
预期进球
River Plate
1.7
Total xG
2.6
Belgrano
0.8
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
xG 分解
RPBEL

River Plate

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.82倍)
+1.48
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
-0.90
防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.26
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2球)
+0.18
状态上升 (2 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
+0.18
Gonzalo Montiel未进大名单 (4球, 1助攻)
43%进球产出缺失 (仅70%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均2.1球 vs 总体1.4球)

Belgrano

防守不足 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均0.8球)
+0.15
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.22倍)
-0.10
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.09
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.04
Nicolás Fernández替补席 (1球, 3助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.3球)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2球)
-0.49
-0.49
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

57%

平局

26%

客胜

16%

进球数

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

双重机会

主胜或平局

84%

客胜或平局

43%

非平局

74%

双方进球

48%

52%

关键因素
  • Pipeline forecast: Mathematical analysis indicates a clear home win probability of 57% for River Plate
  • Current form: River Plate has won three consecutive games and is in very good form (WDWWW)
  • Offensive strength: River Plate is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals avg) than their season average (1.4 goals avg) and generates an average of 6.6 shots on target
风险因素
  • Belgrano averaged only 2.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating limited offensive power
  • Belgrano showed inconsistent form in their last five games with two losses (WLWDL)
概述

River Plate (3rd place, 20 points) host Belgrano (5th place, 19 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol on April 5, 2026, 6:00 PM. The match is a direct encounter in the upper part of the table, where River Plate aims to consolidate their position and Belgrano seeks to close the gap.

近期状态

River Plate is showing very strong form with four wins and one draw (WDWWW) from their last five games. The team has won three consecutive matches. Belgrano, on the other hand, has had mixed form with two wins, one draw, and two losses (WLWDL) in their last five matches, with the last game being a loss (L = Loss, D = Draw, W = Win).

统计数据

River Plate scores an average of 1.27 goals per game this season and concedes 0.82 goals. At home, the average is 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded. Belgrano scores 1.09 goals per game and also concedes 0.82 goals. Away, Belgrano averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded per game. River Plate kept five clean sheets, as did Belgrano. River Plate had three matches with over 2.5 goals, while Belgrano had four.

历史交锋

In the only head-to-head match between the two teams, which took place on May 18, 2024, River Plate won 3-0. River Plate scored all three goals and Belgrano none, highlighting the home team's dominance in this historical comparison.

关键球员

For River Plate, Sebastián Driussi, with 3 season goals in 9 appearances, is a key player who recently scored 3 goals in 5 games and shows stable form (7.31 rating). Ian Subiabre, also in attack, has 1 goal and 2 assists in 11 season appearances, recently showing rising form (7.05 rating) with 1 goal and 2 assists in 5 games. Aníbal Moreno in midfield has 1 assist in 11 season appearances and recently showed stable form (7.08 rating). For Belgrano, Lucas Zelarayán , with 3 goals and 1 assist in 9 season appearances, is an important offensive player who recently scored 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 games. Franco Vázquez (2 goals in 10 season appearances) recently contributed 1 goal in 5 games and has stable form (6.95 rating). Emiliano Rigoni (1 goal, 2 assists in 10 season appearances) recently scored 1 goal in 5 games with stable form (6.63 rating).

门将

Santiago Beltrán of River Plate achieved 5 clean sheets in 11 season games. Thiago Cardozo of Belgrano also achieved 5 clean sheets in 11 season games. Both goalkeepers show comparable performance in keeping a clean sheet.

影响因素

River Plate showed a slight offensive strength in home games with an average of 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded. Belgrano scored an average of 1.2 goals away and conceded 1.0 goal per game.

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