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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Instituto - Defensa y Justicia

04/07/2026, 12:15 AM

2 : 0
预期进球
Instituto
1.1
Total xG
2.0
Defensa y Justicia
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

13%

0:1

11%

2:0

8%
xG 分解
INSDYJ

Instituto

防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.19
排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第4位, 相差9位)
-0.11
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.06
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.25倍)
+0.03
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
-0.01
14%进球产出缺失 (仅84%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.3球 vs 总体1球)

Defensa y Justicia

防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均0.8球)
+0.15
排名优势 (第4位 vs 第13位, 相差9位)
+0.04
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
-0.02
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.25倍)
+0.02
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.02
Rubén Botta未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.9球)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2球)
-0.48
-0.48
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

37%

平局

34%

客胜

29%

进球数

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

双重机会

主胜或平局

71%

客胜或平局

63%

非平局

66%

双方进球

42%

58%

关键因素
  • Defensa y Justicia's strong away defense with only 0.57 goals conceded per game is a crucial factor
  • Defensa y Justicia shows a positive form development, scoring more frequently recently (2.3) than their season average (1.9)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 37% probability, compared to 29% for an away win
风险因素
  • The mathematical analysis shows a relatively high draw probability of 34%
  • The probability for over 2.5 goals is only 33% according to the model
概述

Instituto (13th place, 11 points) host Defensa y Justicia (4th place, 19 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol on April 7, 2026, 2:15 AM

Defensa y Justicia aims to improve their top table position, while Instituto seeks to move away from the bottom ranks

近期状态

Instituto's form is DLLWL

This represents 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last 5 games

The last match ended in a loss

Defensa y Justicia's form is DDDWW

This represents 2 wins and 3 draws in the last 5 games

The team has won the last 2 matches

统计数据

Instituto scored an average of 1.00 goals and conceded 1.36 goals per game this season

At home, the average is 1.00 goals scored and 0.78 goals conceded

The team kept 1 clean sheet and both teams scored in 6 games

Defensa y Justicia scored an average of 1.36 goals and conceded 0.73 goals per game this season

Away, the average is 1.29 goals scored and 0.57 goals conceded

The team kept 5 clean sheets and both teams scored in 6 games

历史交锋

There has been 1 head-to-head match so far

Instituto won the only encounter

The goal difference of 4:1 clearly favors Instituto

The last match ended on August 24, 2024, with a 4:1 victory for Instituto

关键球员

For Instituto, Alex Luna (4 goals, 1 assist), Giuliano Cerato (2 goals, 1 assist), and Diego Sosa (1 goal, 1 assist) are key players

Alex Luna shows a slightly declining form with a rating of 6.72 in the last 5 games

Giuliano Cerato and Diego Sosa are in stable form with ratings of 6.89 and 6.76 respectively in the last 5 games

For Defensa y Justicia, Aarón Molinas (2 goals, 4 assists), Juan Gutiérrez (3 goals, 2 assists), and Elías Pereyra (2 goals) are important players

Aarón Molinas and Juan Gutiérrez are in stable form, as is Elías Pereyra

Not nominated for Defensa y Justicia is Rubén Botta (1 goal, 1 assist)

门将

Manuel Roffo is Instituto's goalkeeper and has 1 clean sheet

Cristopher Fiermarín is Defensa y Justicia's goalkeeper and has 5 clean sheets

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