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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza - Vélez Sarsfield

04/03/2026, 06:00 PM

3 : 2
预期进球
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
0.8
Total xG
2.0
Vélez Sarsfield
1.2
最可能的比分

0:0

15%

0:1

15%

1:1

14%

0:2

10%

1:0

9%
xG 分解
GYEMVS

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.78倍)
-0.54
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.26
防守不足 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.15
排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第1位, 相差12位)
-0.10
状态上升 (0.8 vs 0.6 赛季平均)
+0.04
Santiago Rodríguez替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
37%进球产出缺失 (仅61%可用)
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
主场表现强势 (场均0.9球 vs 总体0.6球)

Vélez Sarsfield

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.38倍)
+0.69
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
-0.38
防守实力 (场均失0.6球 vs 联赛平均0.8球)
-0.25
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.12
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第13位, 相差12位)
+0.07

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2球)
-0.50
-0.50
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

21%

平局

33%

客胜

45%

进球数

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

双重机会

主胜或平局

55%

客胜或平局

79%

非平局

67%

双方进球

39%

61%

关键因素
  • Squad Strength: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza has only 61% of their usual starting XI strength, with Santiago Rodríguez (1G/1A) not in the lineup
  • Form and Table Position: Vélez Sarsfield is the league leader with better form (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), while Gimnasia is winless (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses)
  • Statistical Advantage: Vélez Sarsfield's strong away defense (Avg. 0.5 goals conceded) meets a weak home offense (Gimnasia Avg. 0.5 home goals scored)
风险因素
  • Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza scores only 0.5 home goals per game (homeGoalsScoredAvg)
  • Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 matches (avgShotsOnTarget)
  • Vélez Sarsfield's current goal production (1.0 per game) has slowed down, compared to their season average of 1.2 per game (advancedStats.away.description)
概述

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (13th place, 9 points) host Vélez Sarsfield (1st place, 22 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

The match will take place on April 3, 2026, 3:00 PM

Vélez Sarsfield arrives as the league leader, while Gimnasia is in the lower mid-table

近期状态

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza's form in the last five matches is DLLDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This corresponds to 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

The last two matches resulted in losses

Vélez Sarsfield's form in the last five matches is LWDWD

This means 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

The last match resulted in a loss

统计数据

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza has scored an average of 0.55 goals and conceded 1.18 goals per game this season

At home, the average is 0.5 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded per home game

The team kept 3 clean sheets and failed to score in 5 matches

Vélez Sarsfield has scored an average of 1.09 goals and conceded 0.55 goals per game

Away from home, the average is 1.17 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded per away game

The team kept 5 clean sheets and failed to score in 2 matches

历史交锋

The dataset does not contain any direct head-to-head encounters between Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza and Vélez Sarsfield

关键球员

For Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza, Facundo Lencioni (1 goal, 2 assists, avg rating 7.06) and Agustín Módica (2 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 6.73) are notable

Agustín Módica scored 1 goal in the last 5 matches

Defensively, Ezequiel Muñoz (avg rating 6.93) is an important figure

For Vélez Sarsfield, Matías Pellegrini (3 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 7.06) and Florián Monzón (2 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 6.84) are in form

Matías Pellegrini scored 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 matches, Florián Monzón scored 2 goals

Manuel Lanzini (2 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 7.13) is a crucial player in midfield

门将

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza's goalkeeper, Cesar Rigamonti, has achieved an average rating of 7.12 this season

He kept 3 clean sheets

Vélez Sarsfield's goalkeeper is Álvaro Montero, whose average rating is 7.21

He kept 5 clean sheets

影响因素

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza scored an average of 0.5 goals and conceded 0.83 goals in home games

Vélez Sarsfield performed strongly away, scoring 1.17 goals and conceding only 0.5 goals per away game

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