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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Sarmiento - Gimnasia La Plata

04/13/2026, 07:30 PM

1 : 2
预期进球
Sarmiento
1.3
Total xG
2.0
Gimnasia La Plata
0.7
最可能的比分

1:0

16%

0:0

15%

1:1

14%

2:0

11%

0:1

8%
xG 分解
SARGLP

Sarmiento

小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
-0.32
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名劣势 (第10位 vs 第2位, 相差8位)
-0.11
状态上升 (1.2 vs 0.9 赛季平均)
+0.10
防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.09
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
+0.03
Julián Contrera未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
12%进球产出缺失 (仅84%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.5球 vs 总体0.9球)

Gimnasia La Plata

防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均0.9球)
+0.78
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.72倍)
-0.36
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.20
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第10位, 相差8位)
+0.03
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.2球)
+0.01
Manuel Panaro替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体1.2球)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2球)
-0.46
-0.46
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

47%

平局

33%

客胜

20%

进球数

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

双重机会

主胜或平局

80%

客胜或平局

53%

非平局

67%

双方进球

39%

61%

关键因素
  • Sarmiento's strong home defense with an average of 0.5 goals conceded meets Gimnasia's weaker away defense with an average of 1.6 goals conceded
  • Sarmiento's positive form with 3 wins in the last 5 games contrasts with Gimnasia's 3 consecutive losses
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 47% probability and 1.26 expected goals for Sarmiento
风险因素
  • Sarmiento recorded an average of only 2.8 shots on target in the last 5 games
  • Gimnasia La Plata recently showed a declining form trend for key players like Nicolás Barros Schelotto (-0.24 delta) and Alexis Steimbach (-0.22 delta)
概述

Sarmiento (10th place, 16 points) hosts Gimnasia La Plata in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

The match takes place on April 13, 2026, at 4:30 PM

The mathematical analysis favors Sarmiento with a 47% probability of winning

近期状态

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Sarmiento shows strong form with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

They won their last two games (W W)

Gimnasia La Plata has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 games

They have suffered 3 consecutive losses recently (L L L)

统计数据

Sarmiento averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per game this season

At home, they are defensively strong with an average of 0.5 goals conceded per home game

Gimnasia La Plata averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Gimnasia La Plata conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game

Sarmiento had both teams score in 4 of their season matches, Gimnasia La Plata in 6 matches

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 Sarmiento games and in 7 Gimnasia La Plata games

历史交锋

In 3 head-to-head matches, there has been 1 away win for Gimnasia La Plata and 2 draws

Sarmiento has not won any of the previous encounters

The last match ended on October 04, 2025, with a 0:1 away victory for Gimnasia La Plata

Sarmiento scored a total of 1 goal and Gimnasia La Plata scored 2 goals in these matches

Gimnasia La Plata has been more dominant in recent head-to-head games

关键球员

Sarmiento's Junior Marabel is a key offensive player with 6 goals and 2 assists, his form is rising

Carlos Villalba contributed 1 goal, his form is also rising

Juan Manuel Insaurralde shows a rising form trend

Julián Contrera is not nominated and contributed 0 goals and 2 assists to the usual starting lineup strength

For Gimnasia La Plata, Marcelo Torres scored 4 goals and 1 assist, his form is stable

Nicolás Barros Schelotto contributed 3 goals and 2 assists, but his form is declining

Enzo Martínez scored 2 goals, his form is stable

Manuel Panaro is not nominated and contributed 1 goal and 1 assist to the usual starting lineup strength

门将

Sarmiento fields Javier Burrai as goalkeeper, who achieved 4 clean sheets this season

For Gimnasia La Plata, Nelson Insfrán is in goal, with 1 clean sheet this season

影响因素

Sarmiento shows an average home goal difference of +0.38 goals per game

They scored 0.88 home goals and conceded 0.5 home goals per match

Gimnasia La Plata scores an average of 1 goal per away game and concedes 1.6 away goals

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