🇦🇷

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Belgrano - Aldosivi

04/11/2026, 12:00 AM

1 : 0
预期进球
Belgrano
1.4
Total xG
2.2
Aldosivi
0.7
最可能的比分

1:0

15%

1:1

13%

0:0

13%

2:0

12%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
BELALD

Belgrano

小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.36
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.18
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
-0.14
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第14位, 相差9位)
+0.06
Lucas Passerini 替补席 (0球, 3助攻)

Aldosivi

防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均0.9球)
+0.76
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.07
排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第5位, 相差9位)
-0.07
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.2球)
-0.05
Federico Gino未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
Nicolás Cordero替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
100%进球产出缺失 (仅0%可用)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2球)
-0.46
-0.46
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

53%

平局

30%

客胜

17%

进球数

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

双重机会

主胜或平局

83%

客胜或平局

47%

非平局

70%

双方进球

40%

60%

关键因素
  • Critical weakening of Aldosivi: Only 0% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, without Federico Gino (2G/0A) and Nicolás Cordero (1G/1A)
  • Aldosivi's weak offense: The team scored an average of only 0.25 goals per game this season and failed to score in 9 matches
  • Belgrano's home strength: The home defense concedes only 0.67 goals per game, while the pipeline analysis predicts a home win with 53% probability
风险因素
  • Belgrano's goal production has slowed down recently (0.8 goals on average in recent matches), compared to their season average of 1.2 goals
  • Belgrano averaged 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few attempts on goal
  • Aldosivi played counter-attacking in their last 5 games with 39% possession and an average of 2.6 shots on target
概述

Belgrano (5th place, 19 points) host Aldosivi (14th place, 6 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

The match takes place on April 11, 2026, 2:00 AM

Belgrano is in the upper third of the table, while Aldosivi struggles at the bottom to catch up

近期状态

Belgrano's current form in all competitions is LWDLL

This corresponds to 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last five matches

The last match ended in a loss

Aldosivi's form is DDLLD

This means 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

The last match ended in a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Belgrano scores an average of 1.00 home goals per game this season

The home team concedes an average of 0.67 goals per home game

Aldosivi scores an average of 0.25 away goals per game

The guests concede an average of 1.25 goals in away games

Both teams scored in 6 of Belgrano's games and 3 of Aldosivi's games

Belgrano had 5 games with over 2.5 goals, Aldosivi had 1 game

历史交锋

In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, Belgrano recorded 1 win and 1 draw

Aldosivi could not win any of the encounters

Belgrano scored a total of 2 goals, Aldosivi zero goals

The last encounter on August 15, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw

Belgrano has shown more dominance in recent head-to-head matches

关键球员

For Belgrano, Lucas Zelarayán (3 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.09 rating) and Franco Vázquez (2 goals, 0 assists, avg 6.96 rating) are important players

Emiliano Rigoni contributed 1 goal and 2 assists, with an avg 6.74 rating

Not nominated: Lucas Passerini (0G/3A)

For Aldosivi, Axel Werner (avg 6.96 rating, 12 season appearances) and Fernando Román (avg 6.96 rating, 11 season appearances) are among the players with the highest average ratings

Franco Leys has an average rating of 6.69 over 9 season appearances

门将

Thiago Cardozo is Belgrano's goalkeeper and played 12 season games

Belgrano's team kept 5 clean sheets this season

Axel Werner is Aldosivi's goalkeeper and played 12 season games

Aldosivi's team kept 4 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Belgrano shows a solid home performance with an average of 1.00 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded

This indicates a stable defense in home matches

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。