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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Instituto - Estudiantes

04/18/2026, 08:15 PM

0 : 1
预期进球
Instituto
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Estudiantes
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
INSEST

Instituto

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.31倍)
+0.16
排名劣势 (第8位 vs 第2位, 相差6位)
-0.08
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
-0.06
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.03
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.02
主场表现强势 (场均1.4球 vs 总体1.1球)
全员可用

Estudiantes

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.5倍)
+0.11
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.10
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
+0.10
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第8位, 相差6位)
+0.03
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.01
Alexis Castro替补席 (2球, 0助攻)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2球)
-0.45
-0.45
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

39%

平局

32%

客胜

29%

进球数

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

双重机会

主胜或平局

71%

客胜或平局

61%

非平局

68%

双方进球

46%

54%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 39% probability for a home win and a 32% probability for a draw
  • Estudiantes has a strong defense, conceding an average of only 0.54 goals per game
  • Instituto plays counter-oriented in the last 5 games with 43% possession and an average of 4.6 shots on target
风险因素
  • Estudiantes was victorious away from home in the only direct encounter so far
  • The low probability of 46% for "Both teams to score" and 38% for over 2.5 goals suggests a potentially low-scoring game
概述

Instituto host Estudiantes in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol on April 18, 2026, 10:15 PM

Estudiantes are in 2nd place in the league table with 24 points

Instituto is listed in 8th place with 0 points

近期状态

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Instituto's recent form is LWLWW

The team recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in the last 5 games and won the last two matches

Estudiantes also has a form of LWWLW

They achieved 3 wins and 2 losses in the last 5 games

统计数据

Instituto averages 1.08 goals scored per game and concedes 1.15 goals

At home, Instituto scores 1.1 goals and concedes only 0.7 goals per home game

Instituto scores consistently (~1.0 goals per game)

Estudiantes is defensively strong, conceding an average of 0.54 goals per game and scoring 1.23 goals

Away from home, Estudiantes scores 1.25 goals and concedes 0.75 goals per away game

Estudiantes is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.5)

历史交锋

Only one head-to-head match between Instituto and Estudiantes has been recorded so far

Estudiantes won this single match away with a score of 3:2 on October 20, 2024

Estudiantes is the recently dominant team in direct comparisons

关键球员

For Instituto, Alex Luna (5 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.16 rating) and Giuliano Cerato (2 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.84 rating) are important offensive players

Alex Luna scored 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Giuliano Cerato recorded 1 goal in the last 5 games

Diego Sosa (1 goal, 2 assists, avg 6.89 rating) contributes to defense and build-up play

For Estudiantes, Tiago Palacios (3 goals, 2 assists, avg 7.23 rating) and Fabricio Pérez (3 goals, 0 assists, avg 6.87 rating) are crucial

Tiago Palacios showed rising form in the last 5 games with 2 goals and 2 assists

Mikel Amondarain (2 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.10 rating) is also an important figure

Not nominated: Alexis Castro (2 goals, 0 assists)

门将

Manuel Roffo is Instituto's goalkeeper and recorded 3 clean sheets this season

Fernando Muslera is Estudiantes' goalkeeper and achieved 6 clean sheets

影响因素

Instituto shows a solid performance at home, with an average of 1.1 goals scored and only 0.7 goals conceded per game

Estudiantes concedes an average of only 0.75 goals per away match and scores 1.25 goals

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