🇦🇷

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Defensa y Justicia - Boca Juniors

04/23/2026, 11:00 PM

0 : 4
预期进球
Defensa y Justicia
0.9
Total xG
1.9
Boca Juniors
1.0
最可能的比分

0:0

16%

1:1

15%

0:1

13%

1:0

11%

0:2

7%
xG 分解
DYJBJ

Defensa y Justicia

小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.25
防守不足 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.18
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
+0.07
Elías Pereyra替补席 (2球, 0助攻)

Boca Juniors

防守实力 (场均失0.7球 vs 联赛平均0.9球)
-0.19
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
-0.11
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.04
Miguel Merentiel 替补席 (4球, 2助攻)
Leandro Paredes替补席 (2球, 3助攻)
Adam Bareiro替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
77%进球产出缺失 (仅21%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.3球)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2球)
-0.46
-0.46
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

30%

平局

35%

客胜

35%

进球数

Over 1.5

59%

Under 1.5

41%

Over 2.5

31%

Under 2.5

69%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

双重机会

主胜或平局

65%

客胜或平局

70%

非平局

65%

双方进球

40%

60%

关键因素
  • Critical weakening of Boca Juniors: Only 21% of usual starting XI goal-scoring strength is available
  • Boca Juniors' strong form and defense: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 games, with an average of 0.4 goals conceded in recent matches
  • Defensa y Justicia's dip in form: Three consecutive losses in recent games
风险因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a very close outcome with only marginal differences in win probabilities (draw 35%, away win 35%, home win 30%)
  • Boca Juniors had only 4 days of rest since their last match
概述

Defensa y Justicia host Boca Juniors in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol on April 23, 2026, 8:00 PM. The mathematical analysis suggests a tight match, with Boca Juniors slightly favored with a 35% win probability.

近期状态

Defensa y Justicia's form is WWLLL, representing 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games. They have lost their last three matches consecutively.

Boca Juniors are in better shape with DWWDW, achieving 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games. They are unbeaten in 5 matches and won their last game.

统计数据

Defensa y Justicia averages 1.21 goals scored per game and concedes 1.07 goals per game this season. At home, they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded. Both teams scored (BTTS) in 8 games.

Boca Juniors averages 1.14 goals scored per game and boasts a strong defense, conceding only 0.57 goals per game. Away from home, they average 1.14 goals scored and 0.71 goals conceded. Boca Juniors kept 8 clean sheets this season.

历史交锋

In 3 head-to-head matches, the record between Defensa y Justicia and Boca Juniors is even, with 1 win for each team and 1 draw. Defensa y Justicia scored 4 goals, while Boca Juniors scored 7. The last encounter was won by Defensa y Justicia 2-1 on September 27, 2025.

关键球员

For Defensa y Justicia, Aarón Molinas (3 goals, 4 assists) and Juan Gutiérrez (3 goals, 2 assists) are key attacking players. Molinas contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games, while Gutiérrez scored 2 goals in his last 5 games.

For Boca Juniors, Exequiel Zeballos (1 goal, 1 assist) and Milton Giménez (1 goal) are important attackers. Zeballos has delivered 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games, while Giménez scored 1 goal in 2 of his last 5 appearances.

门将

Cristopher Fiermarín is the goalkeeper for Defensa y Justicia and has made 14 appearances this season. His team recorded 5 clean sheets.

Leandro Brey is the goalkeeper for Boca Juniors. He has made 3 appearances. Boca Juniors achieved 8 clean sheets this season.

影响因素

Defensa y Justicia scores an average of 1.17 goals at home and concedes 1.0 goal. Boca Juniors scores an average of 1.14 goals away and concedes 0.71 goals. The provided dataset does not contain specific stadium or weather information.

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。