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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Platense - Estudiantes

05/03/2026, 12:15 AM

0 : 2
预期进球
Platense
1.0
Total xG
2.0
Estudiantes
1.0
最可能的比分

0:0

15%

1:1

15%

0:1

12%

1:0

12%

0:2

7%
xG 分解
PLAEST

Platense

防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.13
排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第2位, 相差9位)
-0.10
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.08
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.06
Franco Zapiola替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
68%进球产出缺失 (仅71%可用)

Estudiantes

状态上升 (2 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
+0.17
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.34倍)
+0.09
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
+0.05
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第11位, 相差9位)
+0.04
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
-0.01
Tiago Palacios替补席 (3球, 2助攻)
Mikel Amondarain替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
Fabricio Pérez替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
57%进球产出缺失 (仅51%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.4球)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.44
-0.44
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

32%

平局

34%

客胜

34%

进球数

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

双重机会

主胜或平局

66%

客胜或平局

68%

非平局

66%

双方进球

41%

59%

关键因素
  • Critical absences for Estudiantes: Only 52% of the usual goal threat is available, as Tiago Palacios (3G/2A), Mikel Amondarain (2G/1A), and Fabricio Pérez (3G/0A) are not in the squad
  • Estudiantes' offensive strength: Estudiantes averaged 5.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Platense's 3.6
  • Estudiantes' defensive strength: Estudiantes concede only 0.47 goals per game on average this season, while Platense only scores 0.67 goals per game
风险因素
  • Platense scores an average of only 0.67 home goals per game
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of a draw at 34%
概述

Platense (11th place, 16 points) host Estudiantes (2nd place, 28 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol. The match will take place on May 2, 2026, 9:15 PM. Estudiantes aim to maintain their lead at the top of the table, while Platense is positioned in the mid-table.

近期状态

Platense is in a difficult phase with form LDDLL. The team has not secured a win in their last five matches, recording 2 draws and 3 losses. The form curve shows a declining trend with two consecutive losses. Estudiantes, on the other hand, is in good shape with form WLWWD. Their last five matches resulted in 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. The last game ended in a draw.

统计数据

Platense has scored an average of 0.67 goals per game this season and conceded 0.87 goals. At home, the average is 0.67 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per home game. Platense has kept 6 clean sheets and failed to score in 9 matches. Estudiantes shows a very strong defense, with an average of 1.13 goals scored and only 0.47 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Estudiantes scores an average of 1.2 goals and concedes 0.6 goals per away game. Estudiantes has kept 8 clean sheets and failed to score in 6 matches.

历史交锋

There has been 1 head-to-head match between Platense and Estudiantes. This match ended in a 1:1 draw on September 15, 2024. The goal tally stands at 1:1, highlighting the balance in this single encounter. History shows no dominant team in this matchup.

关键球员

For Platense, Victor Cuesta is an important defender with a season average rating of 7.07. Pablo Ferreira, a midfielder, has a season average rating of 6.95. Matías Borgogno as goalkeeper achieved a season average rating of 6.95, though his form recently declined. For Estudiantes, goalkeeper Fabricio Iacovich is the highest-rated player with a season average rating of 7.1, but his form is declining. Midfielders José Sosa and Ezequiel Piovi both have a season average rating of 6.98, with Sosa also contributing 1 assist.

门将

Platense's goalkeeper, Matías Borgogno, has an average season rating of 6.95 and 6 clean sheets this season. For Estudiantes, Fabricio Iacovich is in goal, boasting an average rating of 7.1 and having secured 8 clean sheets this season.

影响因素

Platense scores an average of 0.67 goals at home and concedes 1.0 goals. Estudiantes shows a stronger offense away from home with an average of 1.2 goals scored and a stable defense with 0.6 goals conceded per away game.

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