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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Vélez Sarsfield - Newell's Old Boys

05/04/2026, 10:15 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Vélez Sarsfield
1.5
Total xG
2.2
Newell's Old Boys
0.8
最可能的比分

1:0

14%

1:1

14%

0:0

12%

2:0

12%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
VSNOB

Vélez Sarsfield

小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
-0.25
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.09
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第14位, 相差11位)
+0.08
Matías Pellegrini替补席 (3球, 2助攻)
29%进球产出缺失 (仅76%可用)

Newell's Old Boys

防守不足 (场均失1.9球 vs 联赛平均0.9球)
+0.98
状态上升 (2 vs 1 赛季平均)
+0.30
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
+0.18
排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第3位, 相差11位)
-0.09
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.04
Oscar Salomón 未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
13%进球产出缺失 (仅100%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.7球 vs 总体1球)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2球)
-0.45
-0.45
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

53%

平局

30%

客胜

18%

进球数

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

双重机会

主胜或平局

82%

客胜或平局

47%

非平局

70%

双方进球

42%

58%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 53% probability
  • Vélez Sarsfield's solid season defense (0.64 goals conceded per game) meets Newell's Old Boys' weak defense (1.73 goals conceded per game)
  • Vélez Sarsfield shows greater strength in home games with an average of 1 goal scored and 0.5 goals conceded per game
风险因素
  • Vélez Sarsfield's recent form (LLWDD) is mixed with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
  • Newell's Old Boys are missing O. Salomón (Muscular problems), A. Montero (Cruciate Ligament Tear), and G. Arias Arroyo (Fracture Of Fibula Shaft)
  • Newell's Old Boys show a strong recent form trend with 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 games despite weak season statistics
概述

Vélez Sarsfield (3rd place, 27 points) host Newell's Old Boys (14th place, 14 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

The match takes place on May 4, 2026, 12:15 AM

Vélez Sarsfield aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table

近期状态

Vélez Sarsfield's last 5 games show a form of LLWDD, which translates to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

The last result was a 2-2 draw against Unión Santa Fe

Newell's Old Boys' form is WWDWD, with 3 wins and 2 draws

The last result was a 1-1 draw against Instituto

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Vélez Sarsfield averaged 1.07 goals scored and 0.64 goals conceded per game this season

The team kept 7 clean sheets and both teams scored in 6 matches

Newell's Old Boys averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded per game this season

Newell's Old Boys kept 2 clean sheets and both teams scored in 8 matches

At home, Vélez Sarsfield scored an average of 1 goal and conceded 0.5 goals

Away from home, Newell's Old Boys scored an average of 0.89 goals and conceded 1.78 goals

历史交锋

There has been 1 head-to-head match between Vélez Sarsfield and Newell's Old Boys

Vélez Sarsfield won this single match, scoring 1 goal while Newell's Old Boys scored none

The last encounter was on May 21, 2024, ending 1-0 in favor of Vélez Sarsfield

关键球员

For Vélez Sarsfield: Florián Monzón (Attacker) scored 3 goals and 0 assists this season

In the last 5 games, he scored 2 goals

Joaquín García (Defender) has 2 goals and 0 assists this season

In the last 5 games, he scored 1 goal

Manuel Lanzini (Midfielder) scored 3 goals and 0 assists this season

For Newell's Old Boys: Jeronimo Russo (Attacker) scored 1 goal and 2 assists this season

In the last 5 games, he scored 1 goal and 2 assists with rising form

Matías Cóccaro (Attacker) has 1 goal and 2 assists this season

Walter Mazzantti (Attacker) has 1 goal and 0 assists this season

In the last 5 games, he scored 1 goal

门将

Vélez Sarsfield's goalkeeper, Álvaro Montero, recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Newell's Old Boys' goalkeeper, Josué Reinatti, recorded 2 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Vélez Sarsfield shows home strength with an average of 1 goal scored and 0.5 goals conceded per home game

Newell's Old Boys concede an average of 1.78 goals per away game

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