Liga Profesional de Fútbol
River Plate - Atlético Tucumán
05/03/2026, 09:30 PM
预期进球
1.9
2.7
0.8
2:0
12%1:1
11%2:1
10%3:0
8%3:1
6%xG 分解
River Plate
Atlético Tucumán
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
62%
平局
24%
客胜
14%
进球数
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
双重机会
主胜或平局
86%
客胜或平局
38%
非平局
76%
双方进球
是
49%
否
51%
关键因素
- Mathematical Analysis: Pipeline predictions indicate a 62% home win for River Plate, forecasting 1.92 expected home goals versus 0.81 for the visitors
- Form and Home Advantage: River Plate is in strong form (WWWLW) and defensively stable at home (0.7 goals conceded), while Atlético Tucumán has a weak away defense (2.33 goals conceded)
- Tactical Comparison: River Plate dominated recent 5 games with an average of 63% possession and 4.2 shots on target, in contrast to Atlético Tucumán's 40% possession and 2.8 shots on target
风险因素
- River Plate is missing some goal threat (only 64% available) due to Gonzalo Montiel and Sebastián Driussi
- Atlético Tucumán's goal production is currently stalling (0.8 goals versus 1.1 season average) and they average only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
概述
River Plate (2nd place, 29 points) host Atlético Tucumán (13th place, 11 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol. The match takes place on May 3, 2026, 10:30 PM. River Plate aim to close the gap to the top of the table, while Atlético Tucumán need crucial points in the relegation battle.
近期状态
River Plate show strong form with WWWLW in their last five matches, recording 4 wins and 1 loss. Their last game resulted in a win.
Atlético Tucumán display weaker form with WLDLD, including 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games. Their last match ended in a draw.
统计数据
River Plate scores an average of 1.47 goals and concedes 0.73 goals per game this season. At home, these figures are 1.4 goals scored and 0.7 goals conceded. The team kept 7 clean sheets and had 5 matches with over 2.5 goals.
Atlético Tucumán averages 0.93 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per game. Away from home, their defense is more vulnerable, conceding 2.33 goals per game while scoring 1 goal. The team kept 4 clean sheets and had 8 matches with over 2.5 goals.
历史交锋
In 3 head-to-head matches over the last two years, River Plate secured 2 wins and Atlético Tucumán 1 win. The goal difference stands at 5:3 in favor of River Plate. The last encounter on September 21, 2025, saw Atlético Tucumán win 2:0, but overall, River Plate dominate recent meetings.
关键球员
For River Plate, Facundo Colidio (3 goals, 1 assist) and Tomás Galván (2 goals, 1 assist) stand out, both showing rising form. Marcos Acuña also displays a good form curve with an increasing rating.
On Atlético Tucumán's side, Leandro Díaz is the most dangerous player with 5 goals and 1 assist, although his form is slightly declining. Franco Nicola (2 goals, 1 assist) shows rising form. Clever Ferreira has scored 1 goal and has stable to slightly rising form.
门将
Santiago Beltrán, River Plate's goalkeeper, has recorded 7 clean sheets in 15 season appearances and shows stable form. His average season rating is 6.93.
Luis Ingolotti, Atlético Tucumán's goalkeeper, also made 15 season appearances and achieved 4 clean sheets. His form curve is notably positive, with a rising last 5 game rating of 7.04.
影响因素
River Plate shows a solid home performance with 1.4 goals scored and only 0.7 goals conceded per home game. Atlético Tucumán has significant defensive issues away from home, conceding an average of 2.33 goals per away game.