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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Belgrano - Sarmiento

05/03/2026, 07:00 PM

4 : 0
预期进球
Belgrano
1.3
Total xG
1.9
Sarmiento
0.6
最可能的比分

1:0

18%

0:0

17%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:1

8%
xG 分解
BELSAR

Belgrano

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.77倍)
+0.22
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.20
状态下滑 (0.5 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
-0.17
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
-0.15
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第11位, 相差6位)
+0.04
Lucas Zelarayán 未进大名单 (4球, 1助攻)
Nicolás Fernández替补席 (1球, 4助攻)
Franco Vázquez替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
76%进球产出缺失 (仅56%可用)

Sarmiento

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.5倍)
-0.50
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.27
防守不足 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均0.9球)
+0.25
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
+0.14
状态上升 (1.4 vs 0.9 赛季平均)
+0.14
排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第5位, 相差6位)
-0.04
客场表现不佳 (场均0.5球 vs 总体0.9球)
全员可用

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2球)
-0.45
-0.45
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

51%

平局

33%

客胜

17%

进球数

Over 1.5

58%

Under 1.5

42%

Over 2.5

29%

Under 2.5

71%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

双重机会

主胜或平局

83%

客胜或平局

49%

非平局

67%

双方进球

35%

65%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Belgrano with a 51% probability and expected goals of 1.28 compared to 0.62 for Sarmiento
  • Belgrano demonstrates a strong home defense, conceding an average of 0.62 goals per game and achieving 3 clean sheets
  • Sarmiento, however, is defensively vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per away game without any clean sheets
风险因素
  • Belgrano is weakened by the absence of key players such as Lucas Zelarayán (4 goals/1 assist), Nicolás Fernández (1 goal/4 assists), and Franco Vázquez (2 goals/0 assists), leaving only 56% of the usual starting XI goal threat available
  • Belgrano's goal production has declined, with an average of 0.5 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 1.1 goals
  • Sarmiento shows a positive form trend, currently scoring more frequently (1.4 goals) than their season average (0.9 goals)
概述

Belgrano (5th place, 23 points) hosts Sarmiento (11th place, 19 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol on May 3, 2026, 4:00 PM

Belgrano is in the mid-table, while Sarmiento is fighting to catch up

The match is crucial for both teams to improve their positions

近期状态

Belgrano's form across all competitions is LLWDL

The home team recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Sarmiento's form across all competitions is WWLLW

The visitors achieved 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

According to the analysis, Belgrano's goal production has recently slowed (averaging 0.5 goals), while Sarmiento shows a positive form trend and is currently scoring more frequently (averaging 1.4 goals) than their season average (averaging 0.9 goals)

统计数据

Belgrano scores an average of 0.87 goals and concedes an average of 0.87 goals per season

Sarmiento scores an average of 0.87 goals and concedes an average of 1.07 goals per season

Belgrano had both teams score (BTTS) in 6 matches and 5 matches with over 2.5 goals

Sarmiento had both teams score in 6 matches and 6 matches with over 2.5 goals

At home, Belgrano scores an average of 0.88 goals and concedes an average of 0.62 goals

Away, Sarmiento scores an average of 0.8 goals and concedes an average of 2.0 goals

Belgrano achieved 3 clean sheets at home

Sarmiento failed to achieve any clean sheets away

历史交锋

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between Belgrano and Sarmiento so far

This match ended in a 0:0 draw on August 4, 2024

Both teams scored 0 goals in this encounter

The record is even with 0 wins for Belgrano, 0 for Sarmiento, and 1 draw

关键球员

Belgrano: Lisandro López (0 goals, 1 assist, Avg 7.13 Rating), Emiliano Rigoni (1 goal, 2 assists, Avg 6.68 Rating), Lucas Passerini (0 goals, 3 assists, Avg 6.67 Rating)

Sarmiento: Junior Marabel (6 goals, 3 assists, Avg 6.95 Rating), Cristian Zabala (1 goal, 0 assists, Avg 6.96 Rating), Jonatan Gómez (1 goal, 1 assist, Avg 6.77 Rating)

门将

Thiago Cardozo of Belgrano has achieved 7 clean sheets this season and has an average rating of 6.95

Javier Burrai of Sarmiento has achieved 5 clean sheets this season and has an average rating of 7.25

Thiago Cardozo recently showed a declining form trend

Javier Burrai recently showed a declining form trend

影响因素

Belgrano shows a solid defense at home, conceding an average of 0.62 goals per game

Sarmiento, on the other hand, concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game and has not achieved any clean sheets away

No data on the effects of the playing surface or weather conditions is available

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