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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza - Defensa y Justicia

05/04/2026, 08:00 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Defensa y Justicia
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

1:0

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%
xG 分解
GYEMDYJ

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
-0.30
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
+0.10
状态上升 (1.2 vs 0.9 赛季平均)
+0.10
Agustín Módica替补席 (4球, 0助攻)
18%进球产出缺失 (仅80%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.3球 vs 总体0.9球)

Defensa y Justicia

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.21倍)
+0.38
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
-0.19
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.19
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
-0.19
客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.4球)
全员可用

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2球)
-0.45
-0.45
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

42%

平局

30%

客胜

28%

进球数

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

双重机会

主胜或平局

72%

客胜或平局

58%

非平局

70%

双方进球

51%

49%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 42% probability and 1.36 expected home goals
  • Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza is currently scoring more (1.2) than their season average (0.9), indicating a positive form trend
  • Defensa y Justicia's goal production is stagnant (0.8) compared to their season average (1.4), and they have suffered 4 consecutive losses
风险因素
  • Agustín Módica is not in the lineup for Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza, impacting 20% of the usual starting XI's goal threat (4G/0A)
  • Defensa y Justicia averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza scores only an average of 0.78 home goals per game
概述

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (12th place, 16 points) host Defensa y Justicia (9th place, 19 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on May 4, 2026, 5:00 PM

The home team is slightly favored according to mathematical analysis, with a 42% chance of winning

近期状态

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza shows mixed form with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games (LWDWL)

Their most recent result was a 1-5 away loss against Independiente Rivadavia

Defensa y Justicia is in a difficult phase with 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5 matches (WLLLL)

The team has suffered 4 consecutive losses, with the last one being a 0-4 defeat against Boca Juniors

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza has scored an average of 0.8 goals per game and conceded 1.4 goals this season

At home, they average 0.78 goals scored and 0.78 goals conceded

Defensa y Justicia has scored an average of 1.13 goals per game and conceded 1.27 goals

Away from home, Defensa y Justicia averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded per game

Both teams scored in 7 games for Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

Both teams scored in 8 games for Defensa y Justicia

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 matches for both teams

历史交锋

No previous head-to-head matches between these two teams were found in the dataset

关键球员

For Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza, Facundo Lencioni (Attacker) is a key offensive player with 2 goals and 5 assists this season

He contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games with an average rating of 6.86

Defender L. Paredes scored 1 goal in his last 5 appearances and has a recent average rating of 6.70

Attacker Blas Armoa contributed 1 goal in his last 3 appearances

For Defensa y Justicia, midfielder Aarón Molinas is a crucial player with 3 goals and 4 assists this season, including 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 matches

Juan Gutiérrez (Attacker) has 3 goals and 2 assists this season and scored 1 goal in his last 5 games

Defender Ayrton Portillo contributed to 3 goals (2 goals, 1 assist) this season and scored 1 goal in his last 5 appearances

门将

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza's goalkeeper Cesar Rigamonti has an average rating of 6.91 in 13 season appearances and has kept 4 clean sheets

Cristopher Fiermarín, the goalkeeper for Defensa y Justicia, has an average rating of 6.87 in 15 season appearances and has kept 5 clean sheets

影响因素

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza scores an average of 0.78 goals and concedes 0.78 goals per home game

Defensa y Justicia scores an average of 1.11 goals and concedes 1.0 goal per away game

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