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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Gimnasia La Plata - Argentinos Juniors

05/03/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 0
预期进球
Gimnasia La Plata
0.9
Total xG
2.1
Argentinos Juniors
1.2
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

12%

1:0

9%

0:2

8%
xG 分解
GLPAJ

Gimnasia La Plata

防守不足 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.20
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.18
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.12
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
-0.12
Enzo Martínez替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
10%进球产出缺失 (仅94%可用)

Argentinos Juniors

小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
-0.24
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.11
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
+0.11
防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均0.9球)
+0.03
Hernán López Muñoz替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Emiliano Viveros未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.9球 vs 总体1.4球)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2球)
-0.45
-0.45
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

27%

平局

33%

客胜

40%

进球数

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

双重机会

主胜或平局

60%

客胜或平局

73%

非平局

67%

双方进球

44%

56%

关键因素
  • Pipeline probability: The mathematical analysis shows an away win probability of 40%
  • Current form: Argentinos Juniors are in better form with 4 wins in their last 5 games compared to Gimnasia La Plata (3 wins)
  • Defensive strength: Argentinos Juniors has a strong defense with an average of 0.71 goals conceded per season, facing Gimnasia's recently weaker offense (0.8 goals)
风险因素
  • Limited data: Only one head-to-head match is available for evaluation
  • Potential overperformance: Argentinos Juniors' current goal production (1.8) is significantly higher than their expected value (xG 0.62), suggesting potential overperformance
概述

Gimnasia La Plata (6th place, 23 points) host Argentinos Juniors (3rd place, 29 points) in a Liga Profesional de Fútbol fixture. The match takes place on May 3, 2026, 9:00 PM. Argentinos Juniors are in a better league position and will look to solidify their spot at the top, while Gimnasia aims to close the gap.

近期状态

Gimnasia La Plata's form over the last five matches across all competitions is LLWWW, which translates to 3 wins and 2 losses. They have won their last three consecutive games. Argentinos Juniors are in excellent form with WWLWW, having secured 4 wins and 1 loss from their last five matches. Argentinos Juniors have won their last two consecutive games. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Gimnasia La Plata averages 1.13 goals scored per game and 1.27 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded. Argentinos Juniors has a season average of 1.07 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded, highlighting a strong defense. Away from home, Argentinos Juniors averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded. Gimnasia La Plata kept 4 clean sheets, while Argentinos Juniors kept 8 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 7 of Gimnasia's matches and 6 of Argentinos Juniors' matches. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 8 of Gimnasia's games and 4 of Argentinos Juniors' games.

历史交锋

There has only been one head-to-head encounter between these two teams. Gimnasia La Plata won this single match on September 2, 2024, at home with a score of 1-0. Historically, Gimnasia La Plata has been the dominant team in this very limited record.

关键球员

For Gimnasia La Plata, key players include Marcelo Torres (6 goals, 1 assist), Nicolás Barros Schelotto (3 goals, 3 assists), and Alexis Steimbach (0 goals, 4 assists). Torres has scored 2 goals in his last five games, Schelotto has 1 assist, and Steimbach has 2 assists. For Argentinos Juniors, important players are Nicolás Oroz (2 goals, 2 assists), Alan Lescano (2 goals, 0 assists), and Iván Morales (1 goal, 1 assist). Oroz provided 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five games, Lescano 1 goal, and Morales 2 goals and 1 assist.

门将

Gimnasia La Plata's goalkeeper, Nelson Insfrán, has made 13 appearances this season, recording 4 clean sheets. For Argentinos Juniors, Brayan Josué Cortés Fernández has appeared 14 times, achieving 8 clean sheets.

影响因素

Gimnasia La Plata averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded at home. Argentinos Juniors averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded away from home. No data is available regarding weather or venue-specific historical influences.

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