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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Vélez Sarsfield - Instituto

07/24/2026, 10:00 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Vélez Sarsfield
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Instituto
1.2
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
VSINS

Vélez Sarsfield

最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.12
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.29倍)
+0.04
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第9位, 相差6位)
+0.04
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
-0.01
Diego Valdés替补席 (0球, 5助攻)

Instituto

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.36倍)
+0.56
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
-0.23
防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均0.9球)
+0.16
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名劣势 (第9位 vs 第3位, 相差6位)
-0.07
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
+0.04
Gastón Lodico未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.41
-0.41
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

37%

平局

31%

客胜

32%

进球数

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

双重机会

主胜或平局

68%

客胜或平局

63%

非平局

69%

双方进球

51%

49%

关键因素
  • Dominant gameplay: Vélez Sarsfield controlled possession recently, averaging 59% possession and 5.0 shots on target per game
  • Instituto's away weakness: The visitors concede an average of 1.5 goals per match on the road
  • Squad impact: Diego Valdés is out for Vélez Sarsfield, which reduces their assist threat, while Instituto must cope without G. Lodico
风险因素
  • Stalling offense: Vélez's goal production has dropped to 1.0 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.2
  • Low-scoring venue: The Estadio José Amalfitani has featured a tight average of only 1.8 goals per match
  • Midfield absences: Instituto must cope with injuries to key midfielders like F. Moyano and G. Lodico
概述

Vélez Sarsfield host Instituto at the Estadio José Amalfitani

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on July 24, 2026, 11:00 PM

Third-placed Vélez Sarsfield (28 points) challenge ninth-placed Instituto (21 points)

An important clash in the upper tier of the table

近期状态

Vélez Sarsfield shows mixed form with the recent record of WDDDL

Instituto is in positive form with a record of WWLDW

Legend: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Vélez achieved 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games

Their recent form trend is negative with a stalling goal production of 1.0 goals per match

统计数据

Vélez Sarsfield average 1.06 goals scored and a strong 0.76 goals conceded per match

Instituto record an average of 1.06 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded

Instituto show vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per away game

In home matches of Vélez Sarsfield this season, they averaged 1.12 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded

历史交锋

There have been 4 head-to-head matches between the two teams

Vélez Sarsfield won 2 times, Instituto won 1 time, with 1 draw

The overall goal difference in these direct duels is balanced at 2:2

The last meeting on January 23, 2026, ended in a 1-0 victory for Vélez Sarsfield

关键球员

Florián Monzón shines in attack for Vélez Sarsfield with 6 goals this season and 3 in his last 5 games

Matías Pellegrini contributed 3 goals and 2 assists with a strong average rating of 7.07

Alex Luna leads Instituto with 5 goals and a season rating of 7.07

门将

Tomás Marchiori protects the goal for Vélez Sarsfield and has kept 7 clean sheets this season

Marcos Ledesma starts for Instituto and has recorded 4 clean sheets so far

影响因素

The match is played on natural grass at the Estadio José Amalfitani

Past matches at this venue averaged a low total of only 1.8 goals per game

The probability of both teams scoring at this stadium historically stands at just 40%

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