Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Estudiantes - Independiente
07/26/2026, 08:15 PM
预期进球
1.4
2.2
0.8
1:1
14%1:0
14%0:0
13%2:0
11%2:1
9%xG 分解
Estudiantes
Independiente
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
49%
平局
31%
客胜
20%
进球数
Over 1.5
66%
Under 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
37%
Under 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
18%
Under 3.5
82%
双重机会
主胜或平局
80%
客胜或平局
51%
非平局
69%
双方进球
是
43%
否
57%
关键因素
- Strong home defense: Estudiantes concedes an average of only 0.5 goals per home match and has kept 9 clean sheets this season
- Missing playmaker: Independiente will start without Ignacio Malcorra (1 goal, 3 assists), which reduces the visitors' offensive threat
- Mathematical advantage: Model predictions show a 49% home win probability for Estudiantes with 1.37 expected goals
风险因素
- Head-to-head record: Estudiantes has failed to win either of the last 2 direct encounters against Independiente
- Fragile away defense: Independiente concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away match
- Even possession battle: Both teams have averaged balanced possession recently, with 51.2% for Estudiantes and 48.2% for Independiente
概述
Estudiantes (1st place, 31 points) hosts Independiente (5th place, 24 points)
Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on July 26, 2026, 8:15 PM at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes
A crucial matchup in the upper half of the table
近期状态
Estudiantes' form is WWDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
They lost their last match 0-1 against Racing Club
Independiente comes with a DWLWL form
They suffered a 1-3 defeat against Rosario Central in their last outing
统计数据
Estudiantes boasts a strong defense, conceding only 0.47 goals per game on average
Independiente scores 1.47 goals per match but concedes 2.0 goals per away game on average
The visitors saw both teams score in 12 of their 17 matches
历史交锋
Only 2 head-to-head matches are recorded
Estudiantes has no wins, while Independiente won once
The last meeting on January 23, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw
关键球员
Alexis Castro (3 goals) and Tiago Palacios (3 goals, 2 assists) lead the midfield and attack for Estudiantes
Guido Carrillo starts upfront with 1 goal this season
For Independiente, Gabriel Ávalos is the key attacker with 10 goals and 5 assists
Matías Abaldo has contributed 5 goals and 1 assist
Maximiliano Gutiérrez has 2 goals and 2 assists
门将
Fernando Muslera kept 9 clean sheets for Estudiantes this season
Rodrigo Rey recorded 4 clean sheets for Independiente
影响因素
The match is played at the Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes
In the only recorded game at this venue, Estudiantes secured a dominant 5-0 win
The grass surface provides standard playing conditions