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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Deportivo Riestra - Boca Juniors

07/26/2026, 10:30 PM

3 : 0
预期进球
Deportivo Riestra
0.8
Total xG
1.9
Boca Juniors
1.1
最可能的比分

0:0

17%

0:1

16%

1:1

15%

1:0

10%

0:2

9%
xG 分解
DRBJ

Deportivo Riestra

小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.20
排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第2位, 相差13位)
-0.11
防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.09
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.01
主场表现强势 (场均1球 vs 总体0.4球)

Boca Juniors

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.44倍)
+0.17
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2球)
+0.12
状态上升 (2 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
+0.12
防守实力 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均0.9球)
-0.09
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第15位, 相差13位)
+0.07
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
-0.03
Milton Giménez 未进大名单 (4球, 0助攻)
43%进球产出缺失 (仅59%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体1.6球)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.43
-0.43
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

23%

平局

35%

客胜

42%

进球数

Over 1.5

57%

Under 1.5

43%

Over 2.5

28%

Under 2.5

72%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

双重机会

主胜或平局

58%

客胜或平局

77%

非平局

65%

双方进球

37%

63%

关键因素
  • Boca Juniors averaged 7.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Deportivo Riestra's average of 3.2
  • Historically extremely low-scoring: Matches at Estadio Guillermo Laza average only 1.0 goals per game
  • The mathematical model predicts Boca Juniors as favorites with a 42% win probability compared to 23% for the hosts
风险因素
  • Milton Giménez is missing for the visitors, leaving only 60% of their usual goal-scoring threat available
  • Deportivo Riestra conceded an average of only 0.31 goals per game at home this season
  • Deportivo Riestra failed to score in 12 out of 16 matches this season
概述

Deportivo Riestra host Boca Juniors at Estadio Guillermo Laza

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on July 26, 2026, 10:30 PM

Deportivo Riestra is in 15th place with 11 points

Boca Juniors is in 2nd place with 30 points

The visitors enter the match as favorites

近期状态

Form of Deportivo Riestra: LLLWD

The home team recorded one draw and one win recently

Form of Boca Juniors: DWWWL

Boca Juniors suffered a loss in their last match

In total, the visitors achieved 3 wins in their last 5 games

Explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Deportivo Riestra averages only 0.31 goals scored per match

Boca Juniors scores an average of 1.41 goals per game

Both teams concede few goals with 0.75 for the home team and 0.71 for the away team

Riestra kept 6 clean sheets this season

Matches at Riestra's home stadium average only 1.0 total goals

历史交锋

There have been 2 head-to-head matches between these teams

Boca Juniors won 1 match, and 1 match ended in a draw

The goal difference is 2:1 in favor of Boca Juniors

The last encounter ended in a 1:0 victory for Boca Juniors

关键球员

For Deportivo Riestra, goalkeeper Ignacio Arce stands out with a 7.27 season rating

Attacker Antony Alonso scored 2 goals so far this season

Defender Mariano Bracamonte has 1 goal and a season rating of 6.75

Boca Juniors relies on attacker Alan Velasco with a strong 7.38 rating and 2 goals

Defender Lautaro Blanco contributed 1 goal and 1 assist

Defender Lautaro Di Lollo has 1 goal and a rating of 7.09

门将

Ignacio Arce is in goal for Deportivo Riestra, keeping 6 clean sheets in 16 matches

Álvaro Montero starts for Boca Juniors, having made zero appearances this season

Arce shows strong form with a recent rating of 7.44

影响因素

The game will be played on grass at Estadio Guillermo Laza

Historically, matches at this venue average a low 1.0 goals per game

Deportivo Riestra conceded only 4 goals in 13 home matches

The model calculates a high 72% probability for under 2.5 goals

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