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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Sarmiento - Argentinos Juniors

07/23/2026, 10:30 PM

2 : 3
预期进球
Sarmiento
0.9
Total xG
1.8
Argentinos Juniors
0.8
最可能的比分

0:0

19%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:1

13%

2:0

7%
xG 分解
SARAJ

Sarmiento

防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.15
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.12
排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第3位, 相差8位)
-0.08
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
+0.04
11%进球产出缺失 (仅85%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.3球 vs 总体0.9球)

Argentinos Juniors

小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.23
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.03
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第11位, 相差8位)
+0.03
防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均0.9球)
-0.02
Tomás Molina替补席 (4球, 1助攻)
Román Riquelme未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
Leandro Lozano未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
25%进球产出缺失 (仅71%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.9球 vs 总体1.3球)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.42
-0.42
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

33%

平局

37%

客胜

30%

进球数

Over 1.5

54%

Under 1.5

46%

Over 2.5

26%

Under 2.5

74%

Over 3.5

10%

Under 3.5

90%

双重机会

主胜或平局

70%

客胜或平局

67%

非平局

63%

双方进球

36%

64%

关键因素
  • Tactical superiority: Argentinos Juniors recently averaged 5.0 shots on target per match with 57.8% possession
  • Defensive stability: The visitors travel with 10 clean sheets already in the running season
  • Balanced prediction: The mathematical calculation shows the highest probability for a draw at 37%
风险因素
  • Significant squad loss: Tomás Molina, Román Riquelme, and Leandro Lozano are missing, leaving only 72% of the goal threat for Argentinos Juniors
  • Low-scoring stadium: Estadio Eva Perón de Junín averages only 1.4 goals per match
概述

Sarmiento hosts Argentinos Juniors

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on July 23, 2026, 11:30 PM

Sarmiento is in 11th place with 19 points

Argentinos Juniors is in 3rd place with 29 points

The match takes place at Estadio Eva Perón de Junín

近期状态

Sarmiento has a form of WLLWL

Sarmiento has 2 wins and 3 losses

Argentinos Juniors has a form of WLWWD

Argentinos Juniors recently had 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Sarmiento scores an average of 0.81 goals and concedes 1.25 goals

Sarmiento is defensively stronger at home with only 0.55 goals conceded on average

Argentinos Juniors scores an average of 1.11 goals and concedes 0.74 goals

Argentinos Juniors has kept 10 clean sheets this season

历史交锋

There have been 2 head-to-head matches

Argentinos Juniors has 1 away win and there was 1 draw

The last match on January 26, 2026 ended 0:1 for Argentinos Juniors

Sarmiento has not scored in direct duels

关键球员

Junior Marabel has 6 goals and 3 assists in 16 appearances

Cristian Zabala has scored 1 goal in 16 matches

Alan Lescano has 3 goals in 19 appearances for Argentinos Juniors

Sebastián Prieto has 1 goal and 2 assists

门将

Iván Arboleda is the goalkeeper for Sarmiento

Brayan Josué Cortés Fernández played 19 matches for Argentinos Juniors with a 6.88 average rating

Argentinos Juniors has 10 clean sheets this season

Sarmiento kept a clean sheet in 5 matches

影响因素

The match is played on natural grass

The Estadio Eva Perón de Junín averages 1.4 goals per match

Sarmiento benefits from home advantage with only 0.55 goals conceded per home game

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