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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Barracas Central - Aldosivi

07/29/2026, 05:30 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Barracas Central
1.2
Total xG
1.9
Aldosivi
0.7
最可能的比分

0:0

17%

1:0

17%

1:1

14%

2:0

11%

0:1

9%
xG 分解
BCALD

Barracas Central

小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
-0.14
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.04
Fernando Tobio替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
18%进球产出缺失 (仅86%可用)

Aldosivi

防守不足 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均0.9球)
+0.66
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.58倍)
-0.33
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.14
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
+0.08
状态上升 (0.8 vs 0.5 赛季平均)
+0.08
全员可用

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.43
-0.43
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

47%

平局

33%

客胜

19%

进球数

Over 1.5

58%

Under 1.5

42%

Over 2.5

30%

Under 2.5

70%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

双重机会

主胜或平局

81%

客胜或平局

53%

非平局

67%

双方进球

37%

63%

关键因素
  • Form disparity: Barracas Central secured two wins in their last five matches, while Aldosivi remains winless this season
  • Away defensive struggles: Aldosivi confesses an average of 1.5 goals on the road and has kept zero away clean sheets
  • Defensive absentee: Fernando Tobio is missing from the lineup, leaving Barracas with only 86% of their usual startup strength
风险因素
  • Attacking injuries: Barracas Central must cope without the sidelined D. Martínez and J. Morales
  • Passive tactical setups: Both teams played a counter-heavy style recently, averaging just 36% and 31.2% possession
  • Weak away offense: Aldosivi scores an average of only 0.4 goals per away match
概述

Barracas Central hosts Aldosivi at the Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on July 29, 2026, 5:30 PM

Barracas is 9th with 21 points while Aldosivi is 14th with 8 points

The mathematical model estimates a 47% probability of a home win

近期状态

Barracas Central is in WDDLW form with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Aldosivi shows LDLDD form with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

Barracas recently beat River Plate 1-0

Aldosivi comes off a 1-1 draw against Defensa y Justicia

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Barracas averages 0.94 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game

Aldosivi averages a low 0.41 goals scored and 1.18 conceded

Away from home, Aldosivi concedes an average of 1.5 goals and kept no clean sheets

历史交锋

Barracas Central won 2 of the 3 head-to-head matches with 1 draw

Aldosivi has never defeated Barracas Central in direct duels

The last meeting on January 28, 2026, ended in a 0-0 draw

关键球员

Rodrigo Insúa has registered 3 goals and 1 assist this season

Tomás Porra has provided 3 assists with a rising form trend

Nicolás Demartini has scored 1 goal in his last 5 appearances

门将

Marcelo Miño is in goal for Barracas Central with an average rating of 7.42

Ignacio Chicco protects the goal for Aldosivi

Barracas has 5 clean sheets this season compared to 4 for Aldosivi

影响因素

The match is played on a natural grass surface

Barracas Central averages 0.9 goals scored and 0.8 conceded at home

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