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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Gimnasia La Plata - River Plate

07/29/2026, 10:15 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Gimnasia La Plata
0.9
Total xG
2.7
River Plate
1.8
最可能的比分

1:1

12%

0:2

11%

1:2

10%

0:3

6%

1:3

6%
xG 分解
GLPRP

Gimnasia La Plata

小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.22
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
防守不足 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.09
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.05
Marcelo Torres未进大名单 (8球, 1助攻)
Nicolás Barros Schelotto替补席 (3球, 3助攻)
52%进球产出缺失 (仅60%可用)

River Plate

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.63倍)
+1.67
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
-0.74
防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均0.9球)
+0.02
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球)
-0.01
Facundo Colidio替补席 (5球, 3助攻)
Sebastián Driussi未进大名单 (5球, 0助攻)
Aníbal Moreno未进大名单 (0球, 3助攻)
36%进球产出缺失 (仅62%可用)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.43
-0.43
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

17%

平局

26%

客胜

57%

进球数

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

双重机会

主胜或平局

43%

客胜或平局

83%

非平局

74%

双方进球

52%

48%

关键因素
  • Tactical dominance: River Plate averaged 64.4% possession and 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Favorites role: The mathematical model calculates a 57% win probability for River Plate
  • Historical dominance: River Plate won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches with a clear 8:2 goal difference
风险因素
  • Marcelo Torres and Nicolás Barros Schelotto are missing for Gimnasia, leaving only 61% of their goal threat available
  • Facundo Colidio, Sebastián Driussi and Aníbal Moreno are missing for River Plate, leaving only 63% of their goal threat available
  • Gimnasia La Plata's goal production is stalling recently, averaging only 1.0 goal per game compared to their season average of 1.2
概述

Gimnasia La Plata host River Plate at the Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Liga Profesional de Fútbol on July 29, 2026, 11:15 PM

Gimnasia (6th place, 26 points) challenge favorites River Plate (2nd place, 29 points)

River Plate aim to keep pressure on the league leaders with a victory

近期状态

Gimnasia La Plata form: WWWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Gimnasia suffered 2 consecutive losses after 3 previous wins

River Plate form: DWWLL

The visitors also suffered 2 consecutive losses, with 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 5

统计数据

Gimnasia average 1.11 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded per match

At home, Gimnasia average 1.1 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded

River Plate average 1.38 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded per match

On the road, River Plate concede only 0.67 goals per game on average

历史交锋

5 head-to-head matches in historical records

River Plate lead with 3 wins to 1 win for Gimnasia, alongside 1 draw

The goal difference stands at 8:2 in favor of River Plate

The last match on May 14, 2026, ended in a 2-0 victory for River Plate

关键球员

Agustín Auzmendi shows rising form with 2 assists in the last 5 games

Nacho Fernández contributed 2 goals and 2 assists this season with a stable trend

Nelson Insfrán shined recently with an average rating of 7.31 in his last 5 games

Ángel Correa is in top form with 1 goal and 4 assists in his last 5 appearances

Tomás Galván impresses with 3 goals this season and a stable average rating of 7.09

Marcos Acuña recently raised his form to a strong rating of 7.29

门将

Nelson Insfrán starts for Gimnasia, boasting 6 clean sheets this season

Santiago Beltrán guards the net for River Plate and has kept 9 clean sheets so far

影响因素

Gimnasia benefit from home advantage at the Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, with 11 home goals scored and 10 conceded

The stadium averages 2.8 total goals per match historically

The game will be played on natural grass

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