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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Independiente - Newell's Old Boys

07/31/2026, 12:15 AM

1 : 0
预期进球
Independiente
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Newell's Old Boys
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

11%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
INDNOB

Independiente

小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
-0.20
防守不足 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.08
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第14位, 相差9位)
+0.06
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.03
Santiago Arias替补席 (0球, 2助攻)

Newell's Old Boys

状态上升 (1.5 vs 1 赛季平均)
+0.15
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
-0.14
排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第5位, 相差9位)
-0.10
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
+0.06
Matías Cóccaro替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Jeronimo Russo替补席 (1球, 2助攻)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.41
-0.41
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

47%

平局

30%

客胜

23%

进球数

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

双重机会

主胜或平局

77%

客胜或平局

53%

非平局

70%

双方进球

49%

51%

关键因素
  • Squad impact for the visitors: Newell's Old Boys are missing Matías Cóccaro and Jeronimo Russo, leaving only 68% of their seasonal goal threat available
  • Statistical matchup: Independiente scores an average of 1.5 goals at home, whereas Newell's Old Boys concede an average of 1.7 goals in away matches
  • Mathematical model: Calculations favor Independiente with a 47% win probability and predict 1.44 home goals
风险因素
  • Rising form trend: Newell's Old Boys have scored more frequently in recent matches (1.5) compared to their season average (1.0)
  • Head-to-head record: Independiente has failed to win any of the last 2 encounters against Newell's Old Boys
概述

Independiente (5th place, 24 points) host Newell's Old Boys (14th place, 15 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on July 31, 2026, 2:15 AM at the Estadio Libertadores de América

The hosts enter this fixture as the clear favorites

近期状态

Independiente shows a form of WLWLW with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Newell's Old Boys are unbeaten in 5 matches with a form of DWDDW, consisting of 2 wins and 3 draws

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Independiente scores an average of 1.5 goals and concedes 1.28 goals per match this season

In home games, they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.9 goals conceded

Newell's Old Boys average 0.9 goals scored and 1.7 goals conceded in away matches

Both teams scored in 12 of Independiente's 18 matches this season

历史交锋

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Newell's Old Boys won 1 while 1 ended in a draw

The most recent encounter on January 28, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

The goal difference in these matches stands at 3-2 in favor of Independiente

关键球员

Gabriel Ávalos leads the hosts' attack with 11 goals and 5 assists

Matías Abaldo has contributed 5 goals and 1 assist so far this season

Maximiliano Gutiérrez recorded 2 goals and 2 assists

For the visitors, Ignacio Ramírez is the top scorer with 4 goals

Walter Mazzantti has registered 1 goal and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.09

Facundo Guch also has 1 goal and 1 assist this term

门将

Rodrigo Rey guards the goal for Independiente, recording 5 clean sheets this season

Josué Reinatti starts in goal for Newell's Old Boys, maintaining a high average rating of 7.38 so far

影响因素

An average of 3.6 goals per match are scored at the Estadio Libertadores de América

In 3 out of 5 home matches, there were over 2.5 goals and both teams scored

The match will be played on a natural grass surface

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