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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Boca Juniors - Estudiantes

08/05/2026, 10:00 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Boca Juniors
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Estudiantes
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

1:0

12%

0:0

12%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
BJEST

Boca Juniors

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.48倍)
+0.30
防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.18
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2球)
+0.14
状态上升 (2 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
+0.14
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
-0.13
Alan Velasco 替补席 (3球, 1助攻)

Estudiantes

防守实力 (场均失0.6球 vs 联赛平均0.9球)
-0.28
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.13
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.04
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.34倍)
+0.01
Mikel Amondarain未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.4球)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.42
-0.42
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

44%

平局

31%

客胜

25%

进球数

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

双重机会

主胜或平局

75%

客胜或平局

56%

非平局

69%

双方进球

47%

53%

关键因素
  • Boca Juniors are scoring more frequently recently (2.0 goals) than their season average (1.5 goals)
  • Boca Juniors averaged 6.6 shots on target and dominated possession with 65% in recent matches
  • The mathematical model predicts a 45% probability of a home win for Boca Juniors
风险因素
  • Boca Juniors face a physical disadvantage with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Estudiantes present an extremely solid defense, conceding an average of only 0.43 goals in away matches
  • Alan Velasco is missing from the Boca Juniors squad
概述

Boca Juniors (2nd place, 30 points) host Estudiantes (1st place, 31 points) at the Estadio Alberto José Armando

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 5, 2026, 10:00 PM

A top-of-the-table clash with leadership on the line

近期状态

Boca Juniors hold a form of WWLLD in their last five matches

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Estudiantes travel with a form of DWLLW, also recording 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Boca Juniors recently drew, while Estudiantes secured a win

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Boca Juniors score an average of 1.37 goals and concede 0.89 goals per game this season

In home matches, they average 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded

Estudiantes boast a strong defense, conceding only 0.53 goals per game

They concede only 0.43 goals per game in away matches

历史交锋

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in recent history

Boca Juniors won 2 matches, Estudiantes won 1, with 1 draw

The last encounter on January 29, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Estudiantes

关键球员

Miguel Merentiel (5 goals, 2 assists, rating 6.84)

Leandro Paredes (2 goals, 3 assists, rating 7.55)

Tomás Aranda (1 goal, 3 assists, rating 7.07)

Tiago Palacios (3 goals, 3 assists, rating 7.13)

Guido Carrillo (2 goals, 2 assists, rating 7.05)

Tomás Palacios (1 goal, 1 assist, rating 7.15)

门将

Álvaro Montero is in goal for the hosts

Fabricio Iacovich guards the away goal with a strong rating of 7.32 this season

Boca Juniors have kept 9 clean sheets overall, while Estudiantes have kept 10

影响因素

The Estadio Alberto José Armando averages 3.4 total goals per game

Boca Juniors show home strength with 1.43 goals scored per home game

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