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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Newell's Old Boys - Boca Juniors

08/02/2026, 08:00 PM

2 : 2
预期进球
Newell's Old Boys
0.8
Total xG
2.2
Boca Juniors
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

0:1

13%

0:0

12%

0:2

10%

1:2

9%
xG 分解
NOBBJ

Newell's Old Boys

防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.46
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.14
排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第2位, 相差12位)
-0.12
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
+0.08
状态上升 (1.2 vs 0.9 赛季平均)
+0.08
Walter Núñez未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
19%进球产出缺失 (仅82%可用)

Boca Juniors

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.25倍)
+0.70
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
-0.28
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.09
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第14位, 相差12位)
+0.08
防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均0.9球)
+0.05
Alan Velasco 替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.5球)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.42
-0.42
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

21%

平局

31%

客胜

48%

进球数

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

双重机会

主胜或平局

52%

客胜或平局

79%

非平局

69%

双方进球

44%

56%

关键因素
  • Tactical setup: Boca Juniors dominated recently with an average of 59% possession and 6.8 shots on target per match, while Newell's relied on counter-attacks with 41% possession
  • Offensive trend: Boca Juniors are currently scoring more frequently, averaging 1.8 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.5
  • Table and model advantage: Second-placed Boca Juniors are clear favorites, with the mathematical model calculating a 48% win probability
风险因素
  • High fatigue: Newell's Old Boys enter this match with only 2 days of rest since their last game
  • Vulnerable defense: Newell's Old Boys have conceded an average of 1.56 goals per game this season
  • Limited offensive threat: Newell's averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
概述

Newell's Old Boys (14th place, 15 points) host Boca Juniors (2nd place, 30 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 2, 2026, 10:00 PM

Venue is the Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa

Second-placed Boca Juniors aim to keep the pressure on the league leaders

The mathematical model calculates a win probability of 48% for the visitors

近期状态

Home team form: WDDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Away team form: WWWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Newell's Old Boys recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

Boca Juniors recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games

Both teams lost their most recent match

统计数据

Newell's Old Boys scored an average of 0.89 goals and conceded 1.56 goals per game this season

At home, they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded

Boca Juniors scored 1.33 goals per match on average while conceding just 0.83 goals

Away from home, the visitors are defensively solid, conceding only 0.9 goals per match

The model expects 0.84 goals for the hosts and 1.38 goals for the visitors

历史交锋

Boca Juniors clearly dominate the recent direct duels

Boca Juniors won 3 of the last 4 encounters, while Newell's Old Boys won 1

The goal difference stands at 8:2 in favor of the visitors

The last meeting on February 1, 2026, ended in a 2:0 away victory for Boca Juniors

关键球员

For the hosts, Walter Mazzantti stands out with a season rating of 7.09

Matías Cóccaro has recorded 2 goals and 2 assists this season

Leandro Paredes is a key factor for Boca Juniors with an average rating of 7.57

Miguel Merentiel has contributed 5 goals this season

Not nominated: Walter Núñez (1 Goal/1 Assist) and Alan Velasco (2 Goals/1 Assist)

门将

Josué Reinatti guards the net for Newell's Old Boys with a strong rating of 7.38

Álvaro Montero plays in goal for Boca Juniors with a rating of 6.08

Newell's Old Boys kept 3 clean sheets this season, while Boca Juniors secured 9 clean sheets

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa

Venue statistics show a very low-scoring history with an average of 1.2 goals per game

Home advantage for Newell's Old Boys is backed by 3 clean sheets in 8 home matches

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