🇦🇷

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Sarmiento - Independiente Rivadavia

08/03/2026, 07:45 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Sarmiento
0.9
Total xG
1.9
Independiente Rivadavia
1.0
最可能的比分

0:0

17%

1:1

15%

0:1

13%

1:0

12%

0:2

7%
xG 分解
SARIR

Sarmiento

排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第1位, 相差10位)
-0.10
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.08
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
+0.06
Pablo Magnin替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
主场表现强势 (场均1.3球 vs 总体1球)

Independiente Rivadavia

小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.06
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第11位, 相差10位)
+0.05
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
-0.02
Juan Elordi替补席 (1球, 2助攻)
Luciano Gómez未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻)
José Florentín替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
Leonard Costa替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Álex Arce 替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
Sheyko Studer替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.9球 vs 总体1.9球)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.43
-0.43
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

31%

平局

35%

客胜

33%

进球数

Over 1.5

58%

Under 1.5

42%

Over 2.5

29%

Under 2.5

71%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

双重机会

主胜或平局

67%

客胜或平局

69%

非平局

65%

双方进球

39%

61%

关键因素
  • Tactical dominance: Independiente Rivadavia averaged 5.6 shots on target recently, compared to Sarmiento's average of 3.2
  • Gap in standings and form: League leaders Independiente Rivadavia sit on 34 points while Sarmiento have 19 points and lost 4 of their last 5 matches
  • Historical edge: Independiente Rivadavia won both of the 2 direct duels in their history
风险因素
  • Significant squad impact: Independiente Rivadavia are missing 6 key players including Juan Elordi, Luciano Gómez, José Florentín, Leonard Costa, Álex Arce and Sheyko Studer, leaving only 81% of their active goal threat available
  • Short recovery time: Independiente Rivadavia have had only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Solid home defense: Sarmiento concede an average of only 0.75 goals per game on home soil
概述

Sarmiento (11th place, 19 points) host league leaders Independiente Rivadavia (1st place, 34 points) at Estadio Eva Perón de Junín

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 3, 2026, 8:45 PM

Sarmiento aim to move up from the lower mid-table while the visitors fight to stay on top

近期状态

Sarmiento show a weak form trend of LWLLL (1 win, 4 losses)

Independiente Rivadavia are in stable form with WDLDW (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)

Sarmiento lost their last match 2-3 to Banfield while Independiente Rivadavia won 2-1 against Huracán

统计数据

Sarmiento average 0.94 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded per game

Independiente Rivadavia are stronger offensively with 1.68 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded on average

The visitors are defensively solid on the road, conceding only 0.83 goals per away match

历史交锋

Two head-to-head matches in history

Both games were won by Independiente Rivadavia (2 wins, 0 draws)

The last meeting ended in a 2-1 victory for Independiente Rivadavia

关键球员

Junior Marabel is Sarmiento's top threat with 8 league goals

Cristian Zabala has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist from midfield

Fabrizio Sartori has scored 7 goals for Independiente Rivadavia this season

门将

Thyago Ayala starts in goal for Sarmiento

Nicolás Bolcato has played 17 games for the visitors with an average rating of 6.79

Both teams have achieved 5 clean sheets this season

影响因素

The match will be played on grass at Estadio Eva Perón de Junín

Sarmiento's home record shows 5 clean sheets in 12 home matches

The stadium has seen an average of 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。