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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Estudiantes - Defensa y Justicia

08/01/2026, 09:00 PM

3 : 0
预期进球
Estudiantes
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Defensa y Justicia
0.8
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
ESTDYJ

Estudiantes

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.28倍)
+0.33
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.20
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
-0.16
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第10位, 相差9位)
+0.06
Mikel Amondarain未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻)

Defensa y Justicia

最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.12
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
-0.12
排名劣势 (第10位 vs 第1位, 相差9位)
-0.08
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
-0.02
Aarón Molinas未进大名单 (3球, 4助攻)
Ayrton Portillo替补席 (3球, 1助攻)
21%进球产出缺失 (仅65%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.4球)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.43
-0.43
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

49%

平局

30%

客胜

21%

进球数

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

双重机会

主胜或平局

79%

客胜或平局

51%

非平局

70%

双方进球

45%

55%

关键因素
  • Excellent home defense: Estudiantes concede an average of only 0.70 goals per home game
  • Mathematical edge: The model calculates a home win probability of 49%
  • Expected goals: The statistical analysis predicts 1.44 goals for Estudiantes compared to 0.85 for the visitors
风险因素
  • Aarón Molinas, Ayrton Portillo missing for Defensa y Justicia, leaving only 65% of regular starting lineup strength available
  • Fatigue factor: Defensa y Justicia has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Attacking slump: Estudiantes averaged only 0.75 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.27
概述

Estudiantes (2nd place, 31 points) host Defensa y Justicia (10th place, 19 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 1, 2026, 9:00 PM

Estudiantes aim to close the gap to the top of the table

The home side is the favorite for this encounter

近期状态

Estudiantes enter with form WDWLL and consecutive losses in their last two games

Defensa y Justicia improved recently with form LLLDW

The home team has 2 wins in their last 5 matches

The away team recorded 1 win and 1 draw in their last 5 games

统计数据

Estudiantes possess a strong defense conceding average 0.56 goals per game

The home side kept 9 clean sheets this season

Defensa y Justicia conceded 23 goals in 18 matches

The visitors average 1.17 goals scored per game

历史交锋

4 head-to-head matches in total

Estudiantes lead the historic record with 2 wins

The last meeting on February 2, 2026, ended in a 0-0 draw

Only 3 goals have been scored in total across these meetings

关键球员

Tiago Palacios contributed 3 goals and 2 assists this season

Alexis Castro has scored 3 goals so far for the home side

Juan Gutiérrez is the main threat for the visitors with 4 goals and 3 assists

门将

Fernando Muslera has a season average rating of 7.02

Matías Borgogno has played only 2 games in goal this season

Estudiantes kept 9 clean sheets compared to 5 for the visitors

影响因素

The match will take place at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Estudiantes concede average 0.7 goals in home games

No weather data is available in the dataset

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