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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Vélez Sarsfield - Independiente

08/03/2026, 10:00 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Vélez Sarsfield
1.5
Total xG
2.8
Independiente
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
VSIND

Vélez Sarsfield

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.29倍)
+0.65
防守不足 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.36
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
+0.03
Florián Monzón未进大名单 (6球, 0助攻)
Tobías Andrada未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
26%进球产出缺失 (仅100%可用)

Independiente

防守不足 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均0.9球)
+0.32
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.08
Santiago Arias替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.5球)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.43
-0.43
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

42%

平局

28%

客胜

30%

进球数

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

双重机会

主胜或平局

70%

客胜或平局

58%

非平局

72%

双方进球

59%

41%

关键因素
  • Offensive trend: Vélez scores more recently (1.40) than their season average, while Independiente's scoring has stalled (1.20)
  • Tactical dominance: Vélez averaged 57% possession and 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Home vs away mismatch: Vélez concedes only 0.78 goals at home, while Independiente concedes 1.75 goals away
风险因素
  • Fatigue factor: Independiente has only 3 days of rest compared to 4 days for Vélez
  • Defensive absence: J. Gordon is out injured for Vélez
  • Away vulnerability: Independiente concedes a high average of 1.75 goals per away game
概述

Vélez Sarsfield hosts Independiente at the Estadio José Amalfitani

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 3, 2026, 11:00 PM

Vélez sits in 3rd place with 28 points

Independiente enters in 5th place with 24 points

近期状态

Vélez form: DDLWW (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)

Independiente form: LWLWW (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)

Vélez shows a stable trend, scoring more recently (1.40 goals) than their season average

Independiente's goal production is stalling, averaging 1.20 goals recently

统计数据

Vélez boasts a strong defense, conceding only 0.74 goals per game

Independiente scores 1.47 goals on average but concedes 1.21

Both teams scored in 12 of Independiente's 19 matches

历史交锋

Even record with 4 head-to-head matches

Both teams won 1 match each, alongside 2 draws

The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw on January 31, 2026

关键球员

Manuel Lanzini scored 4 goals this season with a 7.20 rating

Diego Valdés contributed 5 assists with a 7.06 rating

Gabriel Ávalos is the biggest threat for Independiente with 11 goals and 5 assists

门将

Tomás Marchiori starts in goal for Vélez with a 7.29 rating

Rodrigo Rey plays for Independiente with a 6.80 rating

Vélez kept 8 clean sheets this season, while Independiente kept 6

影响因素

The match is played on natural grass at the Estadio José Amalfitani

Stadium stats show an average of 1.8 goals per match

Vélez benefits from home advantage, conceding only 0.78 goals per home game

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