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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Independiente - Platense

08/09/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 1
预期进球
Independiente
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Platense
1.2
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
xG 分解
INDPLA

Independiente

小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
-0.14
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.06
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第12位, 相差7位)
+0.05
防守不足 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.02

Platense

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.36倍)
+0.69
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
-0.31
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.10
状态下滑 (0.6 vs 0.9 赛季平均)
-0.10
排名劣势 (第12位 vs 第5位, 相差7位)
-0.09
Nicolás Retamar未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻)
16%进球产出缺失 (仅45%可用)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.43
-0.43
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

39%

平局

30%

客胜

31%

进球数

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

双重机会

主胜或平局

69%

客胜或平局

61%

非平局

70%

双方进球

53%

47%

关键因素
  • Weakened attack: Platense has only 45% of their usual goal threat available without Nicolás Retamar
  • Head-to-head dominance: Independiente is unbeaten in the last 4 meetings (2 wins, 2 draws) with a 5:1 goal difference
  • Home strength vs away crisis: Platense is winless in 5 matches, while Independiente concedes only 0.82 goals per home game
风险因素
  • Independiente's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.2 goals compared to their seasonal average of 1.4
  • Platense's goal production is also stalling recently, averaging 0.6 goals compared to their seasonal average of 0.93
  • Independiente averaged only 3.8 shots on target per game in recent matches
概述

Independiente (5th, 24 points) host Platense (12th, 16 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol on August 9, 2026, 2:30 AM

Home team holds a slight advantage

近期状态

Independiente is in WLWWL form (3 wins, 2 losses)

Platense travels with LLDLL form (1 draw, 4 losses)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Independiente averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded

Platense averages only 0.68 goals scored per match

Visitors failed to score in 11 matches this season

Home defense concedes just 0.82 goals per game

历史交锋

4 head-to-head matches recorded

Independiente has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses

Goal difference is 5:1 in favor of the home team

关键球员

Gabriel Ávalos has 11 goals and 5 assists (Rating 7.39)

Matías Abaldo has 5 goals and 1 assist (Rating 6.73)

Santiago Montiel scored 3 goals and 2 assists

Franco Zapiola has 2 goals (Rating 7.08)

Ignacio Vázquez has 1 goal (Rating 6.98)

Guido Mainero has an average rating of 6.63

门将

Rodrigo Rey is in goal (Rating 6.79, 6 clean sheets)

Juan Pablo Cozzani guards the visitors' goal (Rating 6.42, 6 clean sheets)

影响因素

Estadio Libertadores de América averages 3.4 goals per game

Independiente concedes just 0.82 goals per home match

Platense kept 4 clean sheets in away games on grass

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