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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Instituto - Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

08/09/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 0
预期进球
Instituto
1.5
Total xG
2.2
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
0.7
最可能的比分

1:0

15%

1:1

13%

2:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
INSGYEM

Instituto

小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
-0.25
防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.18
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
+0.04
主场表现强势 (场均1.4球 vs 总体1球)

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.74倍)
-0.40
防守不足 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均0.9球)
+0.39
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.20
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
+0.08
状态上升 (1.2 vs 0.9 赛季平均)
+0.08
Ignacio Sabatini替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体0.9球)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.43
-0.43
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

56%

平局

29%

客胜

15%

进球数

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

双重机会

主胜或平局

85%

客胜或平局

44%

非平局

71%

双方进球

41%

59%

关键因素
  • Home and away discrepancy: While Instituto concedes only avg 0.75 goals at home, Gimnasia allows an extremely vulnerable average of 2.50 goals away
  • Tactical offensive strength: Instituto recently averaged 5.0 shots on target per match and scores more frequently (1.2) than their season average of 1.1
  • Mathematical favorite: The data-driven prediction calculates a solid 56% probability for a home win
风险因素
  • Historical setback: The only previous direct duel was won 0:1 by Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
  • Low scoring probability: With a calculated 62% probability for under 2.5 goals, a single mistake could decide the match
概述

Instituto (9th place, 21 points) hosts Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (11th place, 19 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 9, 2026, 12:30 AM

A tight mid-table clash is expected

近期状态

Instituto form: DWLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Recently 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza form: LWWLW

Recently 3 wins and 2 losses

统计数据

Instituto scores avg 1.05 goals and concedes avg 1.00 goals per match

At home, they only concede avg 0.75 goals

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza scores avg 0.89 goals and concedes avg 1.21 goals

Away from home, the visitors concede avg 2.50 goals

历史交锋

1 head-to-head match in history

1 away win for the visiting team

The last duel ended 0:1 for the away team on February 9, 2026

关键球员

Key players for the home team: Diego Sosa (defender, 1 goal, 4 assists), Alex Luna (midfielder, 5 goals, 1 assist), and Giuliano Cerato (defender, 3 goals, 1 assist)

Key players for the away team: Facundo Lencioni (attacker, 2 goals, 6 assists), Agustín Módica (attacker, 7 goals), and Ezequiel Muñoz (defender, 2 goals)

门将

Marcos Ledesma is in goal for Instituto with 3 appearances this season

Cesar Rigamonti guards the goal for Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with 17 season appearances

Instituto records a total of 5 clean sheets, while the visitors have 6

影响因素

The match is played on grass

Venue history shows an average of 3.2 goals per game in recent matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of those matches

Instituto has a solid home record, conceding only 0.75 goals per home game

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