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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Gimnasia La Plata - Barracas Central

08/09/2026, 08:45 PM

2 : 0
预期进球
Gimnasia La Plata
1.0
Total xG
2.0
Barracas Central
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

12%

0:1

12%

2:0

7%
xG 分解
GLPBC

Gimnasia La Plata

小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.10
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.06
防守不足 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.03
Marcelo Torres未进大名单 (8球, 1助攻)
10%进球产出缺失 (仅100%可用)

Barracas Central

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.76倍)
+0.21
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均0.9球)
+0.05
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.04
客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体1.1球)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.44
-0.44
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

34%

平局

34%

客胜

32%

进球数

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

双重机会

主胜或平局

68%

客胜或平局

66%

非平局

66%

双方进球

42%

58%

关键因素
  • Tactical setup: Gimnasia La Plata averaged 38.2% possession in recent matches, playing counter-oriented football
  • Balanced prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 34% probability for a draw and a 34% chance for a home win
  • Not nominated: Marcelo Torres is missing from Gimnasia La Plata's squad
风险因素
  • Stalling attack: Gimnasia La Plata's goal scoring has stalled recently, averaging 1.0 goal compared to their 1.2 season average
  • Gaps in forward line: Barracas Central's scoring has also stalled, averaging 1.0 goal in recent games
  • Low goal expectation: The model calculates a probability for over 2.5 goals of only 33%
概述

Gimnasia La Plata (6th place, 26 points) host Barracas Central (9th place, 21 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo on August 9, 2026, 8:45 PM

A tight encounter in the upper half of the table is expected

近期状态

Gimnasia La Plata comes in with form WLLWW

Barracas Central travels with form DLWWW

Both teams won their last two and three matches respectively

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Gimnasia La Plata scores an average of 1.14 goals and concedes 1.14 goals per match

Barracas Central averages 0.95 goals scored and concedes 0.79 goals per game

At home, Gimnasia La Plata scores an average of 1.2 goals

Barracas Central averages 1.0 goal scored per away match

历史交锋

There have been 3 head-to-head matches so far

Gimnasia La Plata recorded 2 wins, while Barracas Central has 1 win

The goal difference is 4 to 3 in favor of Gimnasia La Plata

The last meeting on February 9, 2026, ended 2-0 for Barracas Central

关键球员

Alexis Steimbach stands out for Gimnasia La Plata with 1 goal and 5 assists this season

Agustín Auzmendi has scored 3 goals so far

Nacho Fernández contributed 2 goals and 2 assists

For Barracas Central, Tomás Porra excels with 1 goal and 4 assists

Rodrigo Insúa has contributed 3 goals this season

Iván Tapia recorded 1 goal and 2 assists

门将

Nelson Insfrán plays in goal for Gimnasia La Plata, recording 7 clean sheets

Marcelo Miño is in goal for Barracas Central and also has 7 clean sheets

Both keepers provide a reliable defensive foundation

影响因素

Gimnasia La Plata plays at home at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo on natural grass

The stadium history shows an average of 2.4 goals per match

The BTTS rate at this venue is just 20%

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