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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Vélez Sarsfield - Defensa y Justicia

08/17/2026, 10:15 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Vélez Sarsfield
1.5
Total xG
2.8
Defensa y Justicia
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
VSDYJ

Vélez Sarsfield

防守不足 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.38
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第10位, 相差7位)
+0.05
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.02
16%进球产出缺失 (仅88%可用)

Defensa y Justicia

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.42倍)
+0.97
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
-0.43
排名劣势 (第10位 vs 第3位, 相差7位)
-0.10
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.04

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.44
-0.44
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

39%

平局

28%

客胜

33%

进球数

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

双重机会

主胜或平局

67%

客胜或平局

61%

非平局

72%

双方进球

58%

42%

关键因素
  • Strong home defense: Vélez Sarsfield conceded an average of only 0.71 goals per game this season
  • Offensive tactical threat: Defensa y Justicia recently averaged 6.0 shots on target and 62.4% possession
  • Mathematical advantage: The model calculates a 67% probability for a home win or draw
风险因素
  • Visitors' form crisis: Defensa y Justicia shows a negative form trend with goal production stalling at 1.2 goals per game
  • Away defensive weakness: The visitors concede an average of 1.4 goals in away games
  • Limited historical data: Only 2 head-to-head matches are available as a historical basis for comparison
概述

Vélez Sarsfield (3rd place, 28 points) hosts Defensa y Justicia (10th place, 19 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on August 17, 2026, 11:15 PM

An important clash at Estadio José Amalfitani for positions in the standings

近期状态

Vélez Sarsfield shows stable form with the record LWWWD

The hosts recently took 3 wins and a draw from their past 5 matches

Defensa y Justicia travels with the record LDWLW, recording 2 wins and 2 losses recently

统计数据

Vélez Sarsfield scores an average of 1.14 goals per game and concedes only 0.71 goals

The visitors average 1.15 goals but concede 1.35 goals per game

In home games, the hosts average 1.1 goals scored and 0.7 conceded

Away from home, Defensa y Justicia concedes an average of 1.4 goals per game

历史交锋

There have been 2 head-to-head matches in history

Vélez Sarsfield leads the record with one win and one draw

The last encounter on February 14, 2026 ended in a 1:1 draw

关键球员

Manuel Lanzini scored 4 goals this season with an average rating of 7.18

Lucas Robertone shows rising form with one assist in the recent period

Matías Pellegrini scored 3 goals and provided 2 assists so far this season

Juan Gutiérrez stands out for the visitors with 4 goals and 3 assists this season

Ayrton Portillo contributed 3 goals and one assist this season

David Barbona shows rising form with 2 goals in the last 5 games

门将

Tomás Marchiori is in goal for the hosts and has a strong season rating of 7.49

Matías Borgogno guards the goal for Defensa y Justicia with an average rating of 7.05

The hosts have kept 9 clean sheets so far this season

The visitors have recorded 5 clean sheets this campaign

影响因素

The match takes place on grass at Estadio José Amalfitani

Historical stadium statistics show an average of 1.8 goals per game at this venue

The historical rate for both teams to score at this venue is 40%

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