比赛报告 →
Unión Santa Fe – Sarmiento4 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Unión Santa Fe
1.65
总 xG
2.40
Sarmiento
0.75
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Unión Santa Fe | Sarmiento |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.24倍) | +0.83 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均0.9球) | +0.43 | |
| 低进球联赛 (场均2.1球) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.2球) | +0.28 | |
| 最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均2球) | +0.24 | |
| 状态上升 (2 vs 1.2 赛季平均) | +0.24 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球) | −0.10 | |
| 状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.6 赛季平均) | −0.10 | |
| Julián Palacios未进大名单 (3球, 8助攻) | ||
| Lautaro Vargas未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均0.7球 vs 总体1.2球) |
关键因素
- Sarmiento's glaring away weakness with an average of 2.57 goals conceded per game compared to Unión's solid home defense (0.8 conceded per home game)
- The mathematical model calculates a 57% probability of a home win and expects 1.65 home goals
- Not selected for the hosts: Julián Palacios (3 goals, 8 assists) and Lautaro Vargas (0 goals, 2 assists)
风险
- Unión Santa Fe's goal production is stalling, averaging 1.2 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.6
- Sarmiento is currently scoring more frequently, averaging 2.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.2
- The hosts are missing 60% of their seasonal assists due to squad absences
全部概率
赛果
Unión Santa Fe57%
平局27%
Sarmiento15%
进球
大于 1.571%
小于 1.529%
大于 2.543%
小于 2.557%
大于 3.522%
小于 3.578%
双重机会
Unión Santa Fe或平局85%
Sarmiento或平局43%
非平局73%
双方均进球
是44%
否56%
最可能的比分
1:0
13%
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
4:1
最终比分
首发阵容
Unión Santa Fe 4-3-1-2 · Sarmiento 4-4-2
Unión Santa Fe
- 21 M. Mansilla
- 15 J. Pintado Leines
- 2 ?. Rodríguez González
- 26 J. Ludueña
- 18 L. Ayala
- 22 B. Cuello
- 8 E. Giaccone
- 5 L. Menossi
- 11 M. Luna Diale
- 19 M. Estigarribia
- 25 C. Tarragona
Sarmiento
- 12 T. Ayala
- 8 S. Salle
- 44 R. Orihuela Barcos
- 2 J. Insaurralde
- 3 L. Suárez Scalarea
- 19 J. Contrera
- 15 C. Zabala
- 16 M. Martínez
- 21 J. Mavilla
- 24 J. Herrera
- 27 J. Marabel Jara
替补
- 4 M. Rocha Calderón
- 46 S. Grella
- 31 M. Aguirre
- 40 L. Meuli Palma
- 12 B. Pittón
- 43 E. Ramírez
- 10 V. Malcorra
- 29 S. Vera
- 44 T. Fagioli
- 34 M. Peresutti
- 38 V. Cerrudo
- 32 N. Fazzi
- 29 T. Santamaría
- 6 G. Arturia
- 77 N. Pasquini
- 7 P. Magnín
- 11 G. González
- 9 D. Churín
- 33 G. Díaz
- 5 M. García
- 20 U. Giménez
- 23 E. Giménez
- 1 I. Arboleda
- 17 A. Nadruz Blanco
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