比赛报告 →
Boca Juniors – Lanús1 : 0
模型为何这样判断
Boca Juniors
1.61
总 xG
2.52
Lanús
0.91
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Boca Juniors | Lanús |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.4倍) | +0.71 | |
| 低进球联赛 (场均2.1球) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| 防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.2球) | −0.23 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球) | −0.07 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球) | −0.01 | |
| Leandro Paredes替补席 (2球, 3助攻) | ||
| Tomás Aranda未进大名单 (1球, 3助攻) | ||
| Ramiro Carrera未进大名单 (2球, 4助攻) |
关键因素
- Matchup advantage: Boca Juniors' exceptionally strong home defense conceding just 0.78 goals per game meets Lanús' low scoring average of 1.09
- Recent form: Boca Juniors remain unbeaten in their last 5 games while Lanús suffered 3 defeats in their last 5 matches
- Model prediction: The pipeline calculates a 52% home win probability and 1.61 expected goals for Boca Juniors
风险
- Boca Juniors are scoring fewer goals recently (1.2) compared to their season average (1.43)
- Squad impact: Key players Leandro Paredes and Tomás Aranda are missing from the Boca Juniors lineup
- Fatigue factor: Lanús have had only 4 days of rest since their last match
全部概率
赛果
Boca Juniors52%
平局28%
Lanús20%
进球
大于 1.573%
小于 1.527%
大于 2.546%
小于 2.554%
大于 3.525%
小于 3.575%
双重机会
Boca Juniors或平局80%
Lanús或平局48%
非平局72%
双方均进球
是49%
否51%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:0
6%
1:2
5%
1:0
最终比分
首发阵容
Boca Juniors 4-3-3 · Lanús 4-2-3-1
Boca Juniors
- 1 Á. Montero Perales
- 24 D. Gorosito
- 2 L. Di Lollo
- 42 F. Herrera
- 3 L. Blanco
- 25 S. Ascacíbar
- 23 C. Rey Domenech
- 18 M. Delgado
- 19 L. Flores
- 16 M. Merentiel Serrano
- 20 A. Velasco
Lanús
- 26 N. Losada
- 33 T. Guidara
- 24 C. Izquierdoz
- 13 J. Canale Domínguez
- 6 S. Marcich
- 5 F. Peña Biafore
- 30 A. Cardozo
- 11 E. Salvio
- 8 F. Watson
- 25 D. Aquino
- 19 Y. Valois Murillo
替补
- 13 E. Valencia Lastra
- 5 L. Paredes
- 11 Á. Romero Villamayor
- 9 M. Giménez
- 15 W. Alarcón Cepeda
- 4 J. Figal
- 7 C. Palacios Núñez
- 12 L. Brey
- 8 T. Belmonte
- 21 K. Zenon
- 22 S. Villa Cano
- 46 M. Satas
- 35 R. Dejesús López
- 16 M. Sepúlveda Méndez
- 77 L. Besozzi
- 27 F. Sánchez
- 4 Gonzalo Pérez
- 1 F. Petroli
- 3 N. Morgantini
- 17 D. Medina
- 38 B. Acosta
- 20 A. Wlk Dure
- 40 T. López
- 42 G. Lobos
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