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Independiente Rivadavia – Racing Club3 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Independiente Rivadavia
1.76
总 xG
2.57
Racing Club
0.81
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Independiente Rivadavia | Racing Club |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.53倍) | +0.87 | |
| 低进球联赛 (场均2.1球) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球) | −0.23 | |
| 最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球) | −0.18 | |
| 状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.8 赛季平均) | −0.15 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.2 赛季平均) | −0.14 | |
| 排名劣势 (第8位 vs 第1位, 相差7位) | −0.06 | |
| 排名优势 (第1位 vs 第8位, 相差7位) | +0.06 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.2球) | −0.02 | |
| Fabrizio Sartori替补席 (7球, 0助攻) | ||
| Alejo Osella替补席 (4球, 0助攻) | ||
| Juan Elordi替补席 (1球, 2助攻) | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- League leaders Independiente Rivadavia (34 points) face a struggling Racing Club side that has been winless in their last 5 matches
- The mathematical model predicts a high home win probability of 59% with 1.76 expected goals for the hosts
- Independiente Rivadavia recently averaged 4.6 shots on target per match, while Racing Club averaged only 3.4 shots on target
风险
- Both teams have seen their scoring stall recently, with the hosts averaging 1.3 goals (season average: 1.8) and the visitors 0.8 goals (season average: 1.2)
- Racing Club recently averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match
- Historically balanced head-to-head record with 1 win each and 2 draws in their 4 meetings
全部概率
赛果
Independiente Rivadavia59%
平局26%
Racing Club15%
进球
大于 1.574%
小于 1.526%
大于 2.547%
小于 2.553%
大于 3.526%
小于 3.574%
双重机会
Independiente Rivadavia或平局85%
Racing Club或平局41%
非平局74%
双方均进球
是47%
否53%
最可能的比分
1:1
12%
2:0
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
首发阵容
Independiente Rivadavia 4-3-1-2 · Racing Club 4-3-1-2
Independiente Rivadavia
- 30 N. Bolcato
- 2 L. Costa Martínez
- 40 I. Villalba Chamorro
- 42 S. Studer
- 8 L. Bucca
- 11 G. Ríos
- 5 T. Bottari
- 25 J. Florentín Bobadilla
- 10 M. Fernández
- 9 A. Arce Barrios
- 17 M. Salas
Racing Club
- 25 F. Cambeses
- 4 E. Cannavo
- 38 M. Martínez
- 43 G. Escudero
- 18 L. Espino García
- 16 D. Ortegoza
- 33 L. Pérez
- 11 F. Zaracho
- 10 M. Miljevic
- 9 A. Martínez
- 17 T. Conechny
替补
- 13 A. Osella
- 21 E. Gómez Riga
- 20 A. Riep
- 3 J. Elordi
- 32 K. Vázquez
- 19 R. Atencio
- 43 F. Sartori Prieto
- 7 V. Ramis
- 77 L. Sequeira
- 34 S. Moreyra
- 28 A. Vigo
- 23 L. Díaz
- 14 J. Barinaga
- 34 T. Rubio
- 30 M. Tagliamonte
- 7 D. Vergara Hernández
- 22 E. Torres
- 24 A. Fernández
- 20 G. Lodico
- 5 C. Kranevitter
- 37 S. Aguirre
- 40 F. Fraga
- 2 M. Pérez
- 35 D. Deusa
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