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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Newell's Old Boys - Vélez Sarsfield

09/11/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Newell's Old Boys
0.8
Total xG
2.0
Vélez Sarsfield
1.2
最可能的比分

0:0

16%

1:1

15%

0:1

15%

0:2

10%

1:0

9%
xG 分解
NOBVS

Newell's Old Boys

防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.37
状态上升 (1.5 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
+0.12
排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第3位, 相差11位)
-0.10
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
+0.03
Ignacio Ramírez替补席 (4球, 1助攻)

Vélez Sarsfield

防守实力 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均0.9球)
-0.08
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第14位, 相差11位)
+0.06
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.02
Matías Pellegrini未进大名单 (3球, 4助攻)
Dilan Godoy替补席 (0球, 3助攻)
13%进球产出缺失 (仅64%可用)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.41
-0.41
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

23%

平局

34%

客胜

43%

进球数

Over 1.5

60%

Under 1.5

40%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

双重机会

主胜或平局

57%

客胜或平局

77%

非平局

66%

双方进球

40%

60%

关键因素
  • Vélez Sarsfield enter as favorites with a calculated 43% win probability according to the mathematical model
  • The rock-solid defense of Vélez concedes an average of only 0.79 goals per away match this season
  • Newell's Old Boys averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent fixtures
风险因素
  • Matías Pellegrini and Dilan Godoy are missing for Vélez, leaving only 65% of the seasonal goal threat active
  • Newell's Old Boys exhibit home offensive weakness with an average of just 1.0 home goal scored per game
  • Newell's have failed to secure a home victory in head-to-head matches against Vélez over the last two years
概述

Newell's Old Boys host Vélez Sarsfield at the Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on September 11, 2026, 10:00 PM

Newell's sit in 14th place with 15 points, while the visitors are in 3rd place with 28 points

An intense clash between the league's top-tier side and the struggling hosts

近期状态

Newell's recent form is "LWWDD" with two wins and two draws from their last five matches

Vélez Sarsfield are unbeaten in their last five outings with a "DDDDW" record

Both teams earned points in their previous match, with Vélez securing a win and Newell's a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Newell's average 1.0 goal scored and 1.42 goals conceded per match this season

Vélez Sarsfield boast a strong defense, conceding only 0.76 goals per game while scoring 1.16

Newell's home games average 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 goal conceded

The visitors concede just 0.79 goals per away match on average

历史交锋

In their last two head-to-head encounters, Vélez Sarsfield won once, with the other match ending in a draw

Their most recent direct duel ended in a 1:1 draw on May 4, 2026

Newell's scored two goals overall in these games compared to one goal for Vélez

关键球员

Matías Cóccaro leads Newell's attack with 6 goals and 2 assists this season

Walter Mazzantti has contributed 2 goals and 2 assists for the hosts

Manuel Lanzini dictates Vélez's midfield and has scored 6 goals so far

门将

Josué Reinatti guards Newell's goal with a strong season average rating of 7.27

Tomás Marchiori is in goal for Vélez, holding a season rating of 7.11

Both keepers have recorded solid performances with multiple clean sheets this season

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa

Home advantage is key, with Newell's scoring 13 goals in 13 home matches this season

The venue statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per match with a 60% both teams to score rate

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